Advance estimates put India’s GDP growth at 5% for 2012-13

07 Feb 2013 Evaluate

In a big shocker, the Central Statistical Office (CSO) in the advance estimates has pegged country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for the current fiscal year to 5%, way lower than the government’s downward revision to economic growth for fiscal 2011-12, in the previous month to 6.2% from the earlier estimate of 6.5%.

Surprisingly, the latest estimate is the worst of all growth projections issued by the government and Reserve Bank of India. Last month, the RBI in recent monetary policy review, lowered Country’s GDP growth estimate for the fiscal year ending in March to 5.5%, the worst since 2002/03.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in the year 2012-13 is likely to attain a level of Rs 55,03,476 crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2011-12 of Rs 52,43,582 crore, released on January 31, 2013.

The dimmer forecast is due to continued weakness in manufacturing and farm output growth. Meanwhile, the government expects manufacturing output to grow 1.9% this year compared with a 2.7% increase last year. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of 1.0 per cent and 4.4 per cent, respectively during April-November, 2012-13, as compared to the growth rates of 4.2 per cent and 9.5 per cent in these sectors during April-November, 2011-12.

The farm output is expected to rise 1.8%, compared with a 3.6% increase last year. On the other hand, the sectors which registered growth rate of over 5 percent were Construction, trade, hotels, transport and communication, financing, insurance, real estate and business services, and community, social and personal services. 

More depressingly, per capita income in real terms is likely to be just 2.9%, compared to 4.7% for 2011-12. National income, or average income per person, at current market prices, is likely to be about Rs 68,747 or about Rs 5,729 per month per person, showing a rise of 11.7%. Overall national income, at factor cost, is expected to grow by 4.2% as against the previous year’s growth rate of 6.1%.

Fiscal and current account deficits along with uncomfortably high inflation have hurt investments and deteriorated industrial activity. While, the current account deficit has widened to 4.2 percent of GDP in 2011-12, causing the rupee to depreciate sharply before its recent stabilization.

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