Nifty ends lower on lower FY13 GDP forecast

S&P CNX Nifty ended lower on Thursday amid weak domestic cues, as the government disappointed the market by sharply lowering the GDP forecast. On global front, Asian markets too traded choppy and ended the session mostly in the red terrain with Japanese Nikkei losing the most, as traders booked profit after last session’s rally. Meanwhile European markets witnessed flat trade in the opening deals on mixed earnings and concerns over economic and political developments in the euro zone.

Back home, Indian equity benchmark made a negative start as the investors were cautious ahead of economic growth estimates (GDP) for the current fiscal year (FY13).  In the first half of the trade, market bounced back. Traders were seen piling position in IT and auto stocks. However, in the second half of the trade, market pared its early gains and slipped into negative territory as Central Statistical Office (CSO) slashed the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth estimate. India's GDP is estimated to grow at an annual 5% in the 2012/13 fiscal year against 6.2% for 2011-12. Market continued its weak trade on account of sustained selling pressure in realty, media, infra and banks shares. Finally, Nifty ended the session with the loss of 20 points.  

Meanwhile, most of the sectoral indices on the NSE made a negative closing. CNX Media down 2.02%, CNX Realty down 1.60%, CNX Infra down 1.34%, CNX PSU Bank down 1.30% and CNX Metal down 1.00% remained the top losers in the trade. While CNX IT up by 0.48% and CNX auto up by 0.21% remained the gainers. The India Volatility Index (VIX), a gauge for market’s short term expectation of volatility, up by 4.42% and reached 14.89.

The India VIX witnessed an addition of 4.42% at 14.89 as compared to its previous close of at 14.26 on Wednesday.

The 50-share S&P CNX Nifty lost 20.40 points or 0.34% to settle at 5,938.80.

Nifty February 2013 futures closed at 5,961.10 on Thursday at a premium of 22.30 points over spot closing of 5,938.80, while Nifty March 2013 futures ended at 5,991.75, at a premium of 52.95 points over spot closing. Nifty February futures saw contraction of 0.07 million (mn) units taking the total outstanding open interest (OI) to 12.83 mn units. The near month February 2013 derivatives contract will expire on February 28, 2013.

From the most active contracts, JP Associates February 2013 futures were trading at a premium of 0.15 points at 73.85 compared with spot closing of 73.70. The number of contracts traded was 13,921.

NTPC February 2013 futures were at a premium of 0.25 points at 147.95 compared with spot closing of 147.70. The number of contracts traded was 24,106.

DLF February 2013 futures were at a discount of 1.30 points at 270.50 compared with spot closing of 271.80. The number of contracts traded was 15,601.

Reliance Industries February 2013 futures were at a premium of 3.95 points at 875.15 compared with spot closing of 871.20. The number of contracts traded was 9,951.

Reliance Capital February 2013 futures were at a premium of 3.85 points at 446.45 compared with spot closing of 442.60. The number of contracts traded was 9,620.Among Nifty calls, 6,100 SP from the February month expiry was the most active call with an addition of 1.04 million open interest.

Among Nifty puts, 5,700 SP from the February month expiry was the most active put with an addition of 0.20 million open interest.

The maximum OI outstanding for Calls was at 6300 SP (7.44 mn) and that for Puts was at 5,700 SP (6.17mn).

The respective Support and Resistance levels are: Resistance 5969 -- Pivot Point 5948.3 -- Support 5918.1.

The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) OI wise stood at 1.06 for February -month contract.

The top five scrips with highest PCR on OI were Welcorp 1.36, IndusInd bank 1.36, ITC 1.35, Infosys 1.32, and Kotak Bank 1.26.

Among most active underlying, NHPC witnessed an addition of 8.74 million of Open Interest in the February month futures contract followed by Unitech which witnessed contraction of 5.97 million of Open Interest in the near month contract. Meanwhile, Jaiprakash Associates witnessed of contraction of 0.15 million in the February month futures. Also, IFCI witnessed contraction of 0.35 million in Open Interest in the February month contract. Finally, RCOM witnessed an addition of 0.96 million of Open Interest in the near month futures contract.