Fitch Ratings affirms India's sovereign credit rating at 'BBB-' with stable outlook

21 Dec 2022 Evaluate

Fitch Ratings has affirmed India's sovereign credit rating at 'BBB-' with a stable outlook, and said that the rating derives strengths from a robust growth outlook and still-resilient external finances. India enjoyed 'BBB-' rating since an upgrade in August 2006 but the outlook has oscillated between stable and negative. 'BBB-' is the lowest investment grade rating. In June this year, Fitch had upped India's rating outlook to 'stable' from 'negative'.

Though, it expects a modest fiscal slippage in current financial year with central government fiscal deficit at 6.6 percent of GDP against 6.4 percent pegged in Budget, due to higher food and fertiliser subsidies. It also projected the central government setting a six percent of GDP deficit target in its upcoming Budget and retaining its 4.5 percent FY26 target, but added that it may be difficult to achieve.

It noted that ‘Fiscal pressures could arise from upcoming national elections in May 2024, but the incumbent government's dominant political position likely limits these risks’. It said India's robust medium-term growth outlook is a key supporting factor for the rating. A clear improvement in corporate and bank balance sheets, which were under strain prior to the pandemic, is likely to facilitate a steady acceleration in investment in the coming years. Nevertheless, it said risks remain given dynamics in labour force participation, the lagging rural sector recovery, and uneven reform implementation record. 

It has forecast GDP growth of seven percent in the fiscal year ending March 2023 (FY23) on the back of sustained consumption and investment recoveries. It said ‘India is somewhat insulated from the gloomy global outlook in 2023, given its modest reliance on external demand. Nevertheless, we expect declining exports, heightened uncertainty and higher interest rates to slow growth to 6.2 percent in FY24’. It forecast the current account deficit (CAD) to rise to 3.3 percent of GDP this fiscal, from 1.2 percent in the previous year, due to a rising import bill from high commodity prices and robust domestic demand, and declining exports.

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