Global recession likely in 2023; India may benefit from diversification of manufacturing supply chains: WEF Survey

17 Jan 2023 Evaluate

The World Economic Forum (WEF) in its Chief Economists Outlook survey has said that a global recession is likely in 2023, but pressures on food, energy and inflation may be peaking. At the same time, it said some economies in the South Asia region, including Bangladesh and India, may benefit from global trends such as a diversification of manufacturing supply chains away from China. The WEF said globally businesses are expected to cut costs significantly in response to economic headwinds.

A majority of the World Economic Forum's Community of Chief Economists expect to see geopolitical tensions continuing to shape the global economy, and anticipate further monetary tightening in the United States and Europe. Almost two-thirds of chief economists believe a global recession is likely in 2023; of which 18 per cent consider it extremely likely - more than twice as many as in the previous survey conducted in September 2022. A third of respondents consider a global recession to be unlikely this year. There is, however, a strong consensus that the prospects for growth in 2023 are bleak, especially in Europe and the US.

As per the survey, there are expectations of weak or very weak growth in 2023 in Europe, while 91 per cent expect weak or very weak growth in the US. In China, expectations of growth are polarised, with respondents almost evenly split between those who expect weak or strong growth. On inflation, it sees significant variation across regions, with the proportion expecting high inflation in 2023, ranging from just 5 per cent for China to 57 per cent for Europe.

More broadly, it expects the global landscape to remain challenging for businesses - 100 per cent of respondents expect global geopolitical trends to continue redrawing the map of global economic activity along new geopolitical fissures and fault lines. This wider economic shift will likely reverberate through trade, investment, labour and technology flows, creating myriad challenges and opportunities for business. One positive signal is that supply chain disruptions are not expected to cause a significant drag on business activity in 2023.

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