Rating agency ICRA in its latest report has said that the implementation of expected credit loss (ECL)-based provisioning model proposed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be smooth as the transition will hit banks' balance sheets only one time. It said this is an important step towards banks' eventual shift to the Indian accounting standards (IND-AS) regime and the ongoing improvements in their financial metrics should help most of them to transition smoothly to the new framework.
According to the report, the methodology/basis of computation of ECL is central to Ind-AS and migration to the ECL-based loss provisioning will be a major step towards the eventual shift to an Ind-AS regime for banks. Banks' non-performing loan ratios are likely to touch decadal lows by March 2024. With further improvement in profitability and capital cushions in the near-term, the timing is apt for banks to implement the ECL-based provisions and given their capital cushion most banks can easily transition to the new regime.
The report noted that under the ECL model, loans will be classified as stage 1, 2 & 3, depending on their credit risk profile with stage 2 & 3 loans commanding higher provisions. This is in contrast to the existing approach of the incurred loss provisioning, wherein a step-up provisioning is made based on the duration for which the account has remained dud. Shifting to the ECL provisioning model will entail a one-time provisioning for stage 2 & 3 loans apart from other off-balance sheet exposures. While the regulator has proposed a maximum time frame of five years after the date of implementation for spreading out these provisions, the agency expects some banks to raise external capital sooner to manage the impact of the transition in a better manner.
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