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  3. S&P’s sees India’s economic growth improving to 6.4% in FY14

S&P’s sees India’s economic growth improving to 6.4% in FY14

26 Feb 2013 Evaluate

Global rating agency, Standard & Poor's (S&P) sees Indian economic growth improving to 6.4% in FY14, which had earlier threatened to downgrade the country's sovereign rating to junk. As per the rating agency, ‘the increased government welfare spending because of the next general elections, improvement in private consumption, lower interest rates and a better show by agriculture will lead to the growth number going up to 6.4% in FY14.’

Further, according to S&P, the growth number is also expected to go up further to 7.2% in FY15 as mining and power sectors will also start showing improvement. Moreover, it also retained its growth forecast for the current fiscal at 5.5%, half-a-percentage-point above the readings by the Central Statistical Organization (CSO).

However, as per rating agency's credit analyst Geeta Chugh, the relative uptick in growth has already been factored in the sovereign rating, which is the lowest investment grade rating and the worst amongst the BRIC. The recent measures taken by the government has boosted the investor’s confidence and will lead to a gradual economic recovery, but cautioned that the agency would look for progress on the implementation front. 

Referring to specifics measures like the set-up of the Cabinet Committee on Investments (CCI) and a new land acquisition Bill, which are likely to be passed in the Budget session, Geeta said that the real effect of these measures, which have boosted investor confidence, will be visible only starting the second half of 2013. Further, economic recovery will take at least six to nine months and it will not be a V-shaped sharp recovery but a gradual one.

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