Global rating agencies, Standard & Poor's (S&P) and Fitch have kept their sovereign rating on India at same level after the Budget announcement on February 28, but warned that policy execution and controlling subsidies would be the key risks to look out for during the year. The FY14 Budget has projected fiscal deficit at 5.2 and 4.8 per cent respectively for this fiscal and next, reflecting the weak economic environment.
Both the agencies have expressed their views on the Indian economic outlook and considered the factors, which are important to improve the ratings. S&P said ‘the future trajectory of the rating will be determined by factors like economic growth prospects, external position, fiscal reforms like the introduction of the goods and services tax, action on subsidy reduction and the political climate’. Further, it also cautioned that there is little progress in structural reforms to reduce the vulnerability of the government’s fiscal position and there is a possibility that the government may exceed its budgeted expenditure target.
While, Fitch said ‘delivery of subsidy reforms, GDP growth and uncertain proceeds from the privatization process (are) the key risks for the government's policies’. Regarding the upcoming election, the agencies stated that with elections due in 2014, the adherence to fiscal consolidation remains encouraging. Last year, both agencies (S&P and Fitch) had threatened the country to downgrade their sovereign rating to junk status.
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