Govt likely to miss revenue growth target of 23.4% in FY14: Crisil

04 Mar 2013 Evaluate

As per the credit rating agency, Crisil the government is likely to miss the revenue growth target of 23.4 percent in FY14 as its estimates from spectrum and divestment sale inflows are too ambitious. As per the report, given the weak GDP figures, along with the fact that it is an election year, achieving a budgeted revenue and expenditure target will be an arduous task and the Rs 58,000 crore expected from disinvestment and Rs 40,000 crore from spectrum sale are difficult to achieve. 

Regarding the economic growth for the next financial year, the Crisil report said ‘as budgetary proposals are broadly in-line with our expectations, we retain our pre-budget forecast of 6.4 percent GDP for 2013-14, which is the midpoint of the GDP growth range (6.1 to 6.7 percent) that the budget has assumed’. On inflation, the rating agency said it would decline during the next financial year with WPI inflation averaging around 6.5 percent due to low crude oil price, strengthening of rupee and lower core inflation.

By adding further, it noted that the government’s move for fiscal consolidation could hurt growth in the short-run, but it would also create an environment in which the Reserve Bank can cut interest rates and provide support to growth. 'We expect a lowering of the repo rate by 50-75 bps during the rest of 2013-14, due to lower inflation. This will lower the floor for the G-Sec rate and soften yields to around 7.7-7.8 percent by March-end 2014' it added.

Further, it also added that market borrowing of Rs 4.84 trillion for next fiscal against Rs 4.67 trillion this fiscal would create an upside pressure on 10-year G-Sec yields, while, rupee is likely to settle around 51-52 per dollar by the end of March 2014.

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