Final day of FY23 likely to open on flat-to-positive note

Indian markets ended higher with gains of over half a percent each on Wednesday amid fresh foreign fund inflows and firm trends in global markets. The stock markets were closed on Thursday (March 30, 2023), on account of Ram Navami. Today, the final day of FY23 is likely to open on a flat-to-positive note tracking firm global cues, while rising oil prices likely to cap the gains. Traders will be taking encouragement as the World Bank said India’s potential growth could benefit from accelerated implementation of an already ambitious reform agenda. Some support will also come as Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said India was in the ‘bright spot’ amid a series of economic challenges faced by many countries. Traders may take note of Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran’s statement that the Indian economy is likely to grow at the rate of 6.5 per cent in the coming decade on the back of the turnaround in financial and investment cycle. Meanwhile, India will unveil its much-awaited new Foreign Trade Policy 2023-28 on March 31, with a view to boost exports amid slowing global trade. However, traders may be concerned amid report that Covid-19 cases in India saw a sudden rise that has sounded alarm bells in the government. Union Health Ministry has advised all the states to monitor the situation and asked people to follow Covid protocols. On March 30, 3016 Covid cases were reported in the country, which is the highest in the last six months. There may be some cautiousness with a private report that the Reserve Bank may go for a final 25 basis points increase in the current rate hike cycle next week and a reduction would come in only by the end of the third quarter of FY24. Telecom industry stocks will be in focus with report that six telecom companies -- including Airtel, Reliance Jio and Vodafone Idea -- had a total debt of Rs 4.17 lakh crore in fiscal 2021-22. There will be some reaction in coal industry stocks as Coal minister Pralhad Joshi said India will start exporting thermal coal by 2025-26 and stop imports of some grades with an expected rise in domestic output. Metal stocks will be in limelight as Crisil Ratings said the domestic stainless steel demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9 per cent till 2024-25 financial year. Today is going to be busy for the primary market in the SME segment as four IPOs being launched for bidding on March 31.

The US markets ended higher on Thursday for second straight session as bank worries faded and Fed officials reiterated their resolve to lower inflation. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Friday as investors awaited the release of key U.S. inflation data later in the day that could influence the Fed's monetary policy path.

Back home, in a volatile session, Indian equity markets staged a smart rebound and settled with decent gains on Wednesday with Nifty and Sensex rising above 17,050 mark and 57,950 mark, respectively. Markets started on a positive note and extended the gains as the day progress, as traders took encouragement with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal’s statement that the country's merchandise and services exports are estimated to cross $760 billion in the current fiscal ending March 31. He said that at a time when the whole world is facing recession, high inflation and elevated interest rates, India is performing well. Sentiments remained positive amid fresh foreign fund inflows. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) turned buyers on Tuesday as they bought equities worth Rs 1,531.13 crore, according to exchange data. However, markets erased all the gains in mid-session, as traders got anxious with private report stating that the Reserve Bank of India will raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points on April 6 and then pause for the rest of the year. Depreciation in Indian rupee against dollar too weighed down sentiments. But, final hour buying across the sectors help to end session near day's high. Traders also found solace with a private report that India and China will contribute to half of the world's growth this year, and it highlighted that Asia will remain a crucial growth engine with an estimated 4.5 per cent GDP expansion, making it a standout performer amidst the global economic slowdown. Traders also took a note of Fitch Ratings’ statement that even as the Union Budget has outlined a Rs 10 trillion capital expenditure plan for 2023-24 to spur growth, domestic companies are likely to see a 10% to 12% increase in capital expenditure in the coming fiscal. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 346.37 points or 0.60% to 57,960.09 and the CNX Nifty was up by 129.00 points or 0.76% to 17,080.70.