Domestic indices trade higher ahead of macro-economic data

Indian started the session on cautious note on Wednesday ahead of macro-economic data -- consumer price index (CPI) and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) -- due to be released later in the day. There are expectations that the inflation in the month of March eased from 6.44% in February. Markets soon add some strength and are trading firm in early deals with Sensex and Nifty surpassing their physiological levels of 60,200 and 17,750, respectively. Foreign fund inflows aided the domestic sentiments. National Stock Exchange's provisional data showed foreign institutional investors (FII) bought shares worth a net Rs 342.84 crore on April 11. Traders continue to take support with the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the state-run official weather agency, predicting ‘normal’ rains during this year’s monsoon season - June to September - at 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) in spite of the anticipated El Nino conditions. Besides, investors awaited the kick-off of the fourth-quarter reporting season with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) to report result post market hours.

Though, upside remained limited following mixed cues from global markets. Asian equities are trading mixed ahead of a crucial U.S. inflation report that will likely influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with markets wagering another hike in interest rates at the central bank's next meeting. Back home, Adani Group stocks were in focus after reports that LIC has increased its holding in four group companies in the March quarter. In stock specific development, Sula Vineyards gained as sales volume from its own brands crossed 1 million cases in FY23.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 60253.21, up by 95.49 points or 0.16% after trading in a range of 60094.69 and 60313.24. There were 15 stocks advancing against 15 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index rose 0.19%, while Small cap index was up by 0.37%.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Healthcare up by 0.90%, Realty up by 0.79%, Auto up by 0.57%, Metal up by 0.34%, IT up by 0.27%, while Utilities down by 0.31%, PSU down by 0.31%, FMCG down by 0.21%, Power down by 0.18%, Telecom down by 0.17% were the top losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Reliance Industries up by 0.74%, HDFC Bank up by 0.69%, HDFC up by 0.68%, Asian Paints up by 0.49% and Mahindra & Mahindra up by 0.40%. On the flip side, Indusind Bank down by 1.25%, Nestle down by 0.87%, Power Grid down by 0.82%, Bharti Airtel down by 0.70% and NTPC down by 0.65% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its annual World Economic Outlook has lowered India's economic growth projection to 5.9 per cent for the current fiscal 2023-24 (FY24) from 6.1 per cent predicted earlier. It also lowered the forecast for 2024-25 fiscal (April 2024 to March 2025) to 6.3 per cent from the 6.8 per cent it had predicted in January this year. The growth rate of 5.9 per cent in the 2023-24 fiscal compares to an estimated 6.8 per cent in the previous year. Despite a significant drop in growth rate projections, it said India continues to be the fastest-growing economy in the world.

On the inflation front, the IMF projected India’s retail inflation to ease to 4.9 per cent in FY24 from 6.7 per cent in FY23, and the current account deficit to come down to 2.2 per cent of GDP from an estimated 2.6 per cent a year ago. In purchasing power parity terms, India’s growth in per capita output is set to decelerate to 4.9 per cent in FY24 from 5.8 per cent in FY23.

The agency further said China's growth rate is projected to be 5.2 per cent in 2023 and 4.5 per cent in 2024 against its growth rate of three per cent in 2022. On the surface, the global economy appears to be poised for a gradual recovery from the powerful blows of the pandemic and Russia's unprovoked war on Ukraine. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said China is rebounding strongly following the reopening of its economy. Supply-chain disruptions are unwinding, while the dislocations to energy and food markets caused by the war are receding. Simultaneously, the massive and synchronous tightening of monetary policy by most central banks should start to bear fruit, with inflation moving back toward its targets.

He said ‘In our latest forecast, global growth will bottom out at 2.8 per cent this year before rising modestly to 3.0 per cent in 2024. Global inflation will decrease, although more slowly than initially anticipated, from 8.7 per cent in 2022 to 7.0 per cent this year and 4.9 per cent in 2024’. According to him, this year's economic slowdown is concentrated in advanced economies, especially the euro area and the United Kingdom, where growth is expected to fall to 0.8 per cent and -0.3 per cent this year before rebounding to 1.4 and 1 per cent, respectively.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 17761.65, up by 39.35 points or 0.22% after trading in a range of 17717.25 and 17780.00. There were 30 stocks advancing against 20 stocks declining on the index.

The top gainers on Nifty were Divi's Lab up by 4.53%, Adani Enterprises up by 1.65%, Bajaj Auto up by 1.37%, Dr. Reddy's Lab up by 1.23% and Eicher Motors up by 1.04%. On the flip side, Indusind Bank down by 1.30%, BPCL down by 0.97%, Power Grid down by 0.89%, Nestle down by 0.88% and ONGC down by 0.88% were the top losers.

Asian markets are trading mixed; Nikkei 225 surged 172.27 points or 0.62% to 28,095.64, Shanghai Composite strengthened 15.61 points or 0.47% to 3,329.18, KOSPI increased 6.81 points or 0.27% to 2,554.67 and Taiwan Weighted added 1.27 points or 0.01% to 15,915.15. On the other hand, Hang Seng declined 121.67 points or 0.59% to 20,363.57, Jakarta Composite plunged 22.3 points or 0.33% to 6,789.01 and Straits Times was down by 13.13 points or 0.4% to 3,284.70.