Govt should think about freezing subsidy on diesel: Rajan

06 Mar 2013 Evaluate

Terming the widening current account deficit (CAD), as India’s biggest concern, Chief Economic Advisor to the Finance Minister, Raghuram Rajan, has said that ‘CAD is our biggest concern right now because as you finance from outside, you are dependent on the interest of foreign investors. They've been supporting us so far due to the search for yields. But can we continue to rely on that forbearance.’

As per Rajan, the government should think about freezing the subsidy on diesel at the current levels until it reaches the level of world prices so that the budget is not exposed to the risks of an increase in global oil price.

As a short-term way out, Rajan suggested that the government needs to focus more on financing CAD through foreign inflows, since reducing it will take time - the best way is to increase exports relative to imports however, which again is dependent on growth of foreign countries. By adding further he said, there is a need to cut fertilizer subsidies, but did not give a timeline for the same.

Further, cautioning the government against ‘distortionary’ spending, which is consumption-led in nature, Rajan said, there is not much room to cut non-plan spending. The weight of these cuts has to come from Plan spending. Lots of plan spending is also about consumption. Cutting plan spending, if done carefully and judiciously, is not a sacrifice for long-term growth.’

On the growth front, he said, the GDP expansion will reach the 8% mark in the next two-three years. However, he hinted that in the current fiscal growth will be higher than what has been estimated recently. He also said food inflation persisting at a high level was not easy for the central bank to manage.

In the September quarter, the CAD widened to a record high of 5.4% of GDP as export growth slowed more steeply than imports, with a similar gap expected in the December quarter likely to prolong weakness in the rupee. Further, the CAD is likely to stay at record high for the entire 2012-13.

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