Bond yields edge higher after release of better than expected IIP data

12 Mar 2013 Evaluate

Pre IIP and CPI-inflation data scenario:

Bond yields were treading water ahead of January factory output and inflation based on CPI data, which would be crucial in helping cement views ahead of the central bank's policy review on March 19.

On the global front, US 10-year Treasuries edged lower and the 10-year yield hovered near an 11-month high in Asian trade on Tuesday after US stock markets rose the previous day, curbing demand for safe haven debt. Meanwhile, Brent futures held steady at $110 a barrel on Tuesday, drawing support from strong equity markets that helped counter concerns of a build in crude stockpiles for an eighth straight week in the world's largest oil consumer the United States (US).

Back home, the yields on 10-year 8.79% - 2021 bonds were trading steady at its previous close of 7.84%.

The benchmark five-year interest rate swaps were trading lower by 1 basis point at 7.55% from its previous close of 7.56% on Monday.

Post IIP and CPI-inflation data scenario:

In a pleasant surprise, India's annual industrial output growth measured by index of industrial production (IIP) grew by 2.4% at 181.8 for the month of January 2013 against contraction of 0.6%, later revised to -0.5% in the previous month. The numbers were way above the street expectation of over 1% growth figure. The cumulative growth for the period April-December 2012-13 over the corresponding period of the previous year stood at 1%.

Disappointing the market expectations of rate-cut at RBI’s monetary policy review, annual rate of inflation, based on the consumer prices index (CPI), crept higher in the month of February at 10.91% - registering the fifth consecutive monthly rise. This makes the RBI’s rate-cut decision extremely difficult.

The yields on 10-year 8.79% - 2021 bonds edged higher by 3 basis points at 7.87% against its previous close of 7.84% on Monday.

However, more crucial will be headline inflation on Thursday with a reading of 6.5 per cent or less, cementing rate cut hopes for March 19.

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