Inflation moves higher in Feb after four straight months of cooling

14 Mar 2013 Evaluate

In a big sign of disappointment, after falling to a multi-year low in January 2013, the annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, again inched higher to 6.84% (Provisional) for the month of February, 2013 (over February, 2012) as compared to 6.62% (Provisional) for the previous month and 7.56% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Build up inflation in the financial year so far, too has increased and stood at 5.71% compared to a buildup of 6.56% in the corresponding period of the previous year. Meanwhile, the December inflation figures have been revised upward to 7.31% from 7.18%.

However, giving a solace and sign of recovery, manufactured products, which carry weight of 64.97% in the index, declined by 0.1% to 148.2 (Provisional) from 148.3 (Provisional) for the previous month. The index for 'Food Products' group declined by 0.1% to 165.7 (Provisional) from 165.9 (Provisional) for the previous month.

The major culprit of the inflation numbers moving higher was the index of Fuel & Power, which has weight of 14.91%, rose by 3.0% to 195.2 (Provisional) from 189.5 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of LPG, furnace oil, lubricants and high speed diesel.

The index of Primary Articles having weight of 20.12% too rose by 0.6% to 222.7 (Provisional) from 221.4 (Provisional) for the previous month. The index for 'Food Articles' group rose by 0.2% to 214.3 (Provisional) from 213.8 (Provisional) for the previous month, while the index for 'Non-Food Articles' group rose by 1.6% to 205.6 (Provisional) from 202.3 (Provisional) for the previous month. The index for 'Minerals' group rose by 0.9% to 350.1 (Provisional) from 347.0 (Provisional) for the previous month.

There was a wide expectation that the inflation might have cooled further in February, albeit modestly strengthening chances of a rate cut at the RBI policy meeting next week. But the surprise rise in numbers is likely to prevent the RBI from easing monetary policy in its meet on March 19. The RBI governor Duvvuri Subbarao has been reiterating that India's inflation still remains high and stubborn and must come down to a 4-6% range, now the rising numbers may limit the scope of rate cuts further.

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