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Icra eyeing India's GDP growth at 4.9% in January-March period of 2022-23 driven by services sector

29 May 2023 Evaluate

Just few days ahead of official release of the provisional estimate for the India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the fourth quarter as well for the fiscal 2022-23, domestic rating agency Icra is eyeing GDP growth in January-March period of 2022-23 at 4.9 per cent, a modest step-up from the 4.4 per cent recorded in preceding quarters, driven by the services sector. The National Statistical Organisation (NSO) is scheduled to release the provisional estimate for the GDP data on May 31.

Icra estimates the services gross value added (GVA) year-on-year growth to have risen mildly to about 6.4 per cent in Q4 FY23 from 6.2 per cent in Q3 FY23. The YoY performance of nine of the 14 high frequency indicators of the services sector improved in Q4 FY23 relative to Q3 FY23, partly reflecting the robust demand for the contact-intensive segment, as well as the low base of Covid 3.0 for some sectors such as aviation.

The agency estimates the industrial GVA year-on-year growth to have improved to about 3.6 per cent in Q4 FY2023 from 2.4 per cent in Q3 FY2023, aided by an improvement in manufacturing, and mining and quarrying. It further said higher acreage, early sowing, healthy reservoir levels and improved availability of fertilisers augured well for the rabi output in 2023. However, unseasonal rains are likely to have dampened the yield of some crops. It estimates the agri GVA growth at 3.5 per cent for Q4 FY2023, a step down from the 3.7 per cent recorded in October-December quarter.


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