CII Business Confidence Index rises to 66.1 in April-June quarter

10 Jul 2023 Evaluate

With the positive momentum in most of high frequency indicators like GST collection and air & rail passenger traffic, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) in its latest survey report has showed that its Business Confidence Index rose to 66.1 in April-June quarter from 64 in the previous quarter. Though, majority of the over 180 firms surveyed in the Business Outlook Survey (63 per cent) expect India's GDP growth to be 6-7 per cent in the current fiscal, decelerating from 7.2 per cent in the previous year, attributing it to global headwinds and uncertainties.

CII stated ‘It is important for the RBI to stick with a pause on the interest rate to preserve the growth impulses. This was emphasised in the survey results, as 53 per cent of the respondents expected the RBI to maintain status quo on the key interest rates in the first half of the current fiscal’. Notably, 65 per cent respondents are of the view that the fresh sightings in private investment will be sustained in the current fiscal. There are several factors which are driving private capex such as deleveraged corporate balance sheets, which has in turn increased the capacity of the corporates to invest once there is clear visibility on demand.

The survey results also show that 62 per cent of respondents expect muted global growth and geopolitical turbulence as the key business concerns in the current fiscal. The survey showed the interest rate pause by the RBI is expected to bring down the cost of capital for India Inc, thus fuelling fresh investments and giving private capex a further leg-up. It observed there are already signs of increase in capacity utilisation of the respondent companies, with more than half (52 per cent) expecting it to stand in a range of 75-100 per cent in April-June, up from 45 per cent in the previous quarter. It said nearly half of the respondents (47 per cent) expect an increase in employment in the first quarter of the current fiscal (Q1FY24) as compared to 43 per cent in the previous quarter. 

Mirroring the improvement in business sentiments, expectations for the June quarter FY24 have turned sanguine as well, with a majority of the respondents anticipating an increase in sales (55 per cent) and count of new orders (57 per cent). Consequently, the profit outlook for the quarter has strengthened as over one-third of the respondents (38 per cent) foresee an increase in profits, despite the majority of them indicating high input costs. The 123rd round of the Business Outlook Survey was conducted during May-June 2023 and saw the participation of more than 180 firms of varying sizes and across all industry sectors and regions of the country. 64 per cent of firms belonged to the MSME sector.

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