The elevated level of international oil prices and recent depreciation in the rupee has narrowed the scope for the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy response, and it has made strong case of another hike in the RBI’s short term leading and depositing rates. The RBI Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn said 'oil prices have remained very steady despite global economic concerns while in 2008 (when recession hit the global economy) they declined sharply in a small period. It reduces space that monetary policy has in dealing with the situation.'
In order to curb inflation, the RBI has increased its key policy rates by 12 times in last 18 months. The apex bank is scheduled to review its second quarter monetary policy review on October 25. The RBI Deputy Governor’s statement on the monetary policy comes just after Governor D Subbarao defending the tight monetary stance of the RBI to control inflation, which has been hovering near the two digit mark despite the 12 times hike in interest rates.
Since March 2010, the RBI has increased its short term borrowing rates by 350 basis points or 3.5%, however, inflation has remained at elevated level and it has been above 9% from last 9 months, which is 4-5% above the apex bank’s comfort zone.
The recent depreciation in the rupee is also expected to fuel the inflation in the domestic economy. The depreciating rupee will increase the cost of import of crude oil, making strong case of another hike in fuel prices in domestic market. The state owned oil marketing companies has increased the petrol prices by Rs 8 in last six months, and diesel by Rs 3. International oil prices have remained persistently high. Brent Crude oil was trading at over $107 a barrel despite fears of double-dip recession hitting global economy.
D Subbarao at an event in New York said 'at this high level, inflation is unambiguously inimical to growth; it saps investor confidence and erodes medium term growth prospects.'
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