India likely to record normal rainfall during second half of monsoon season: IMD

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the country is likely to record normal rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season following excess precipitation in July, even as El Nino and other unfavourable conditions may suppress rain in August. Scientists at the IMD said August accounts for around 30 percent of the precipitation during the monsoon season. Although El Nino, the warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America, has not impacted the monsoon performance so far, its influence is likely to be visible in the second phase (August-September period) of the monsoon.

El Nino is generally associated with weakening monsoon winds and dry weather in India. The IMD had earlier warned that El Nino might affect the second half of the southwest monsoon. IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said ‘Though the country is expected to experience normal rainfall in August and September, it is likely to be on the lower side (94 percent to 99 percent) of the normal (422.8 mm)’. The IMD said rainfall recorded between 94 percent and 106 percent of the long-period average (LPA), or 50-year average, is considered normal. It added rainfall in August is predicted to be below normal (less than 94 percent of LPA), but the situation is expected to improve comparatively in September.

Normal rainfall is critical for India's agricultural landscape, with 52 percent of the net cultivated area relying on it. Additionally, it plays a crucial role in replenishing reservoirs essential for drinking water and power generation throughout the country. Rainfed agriculture contributes to around 40 per cent of the country's total food production, making it a vital contributor to India's food security and economic stability. The IMD said normal to above-normal rainfall is very likely over east-central India, east and northeast regions, and most subdivisions along the Himalayas in August and September. The east and northeast regions have received 25 percent less rainfall this season so far. Below-normal rainfall is predicted in most parts of peninsular India and western parts of northwest and central India.

According to Mohapatra, India saw a turnaround in monsoon rains, shifting from a nine per cent deficit in June to 13 per cent excess rainfall in July. However, east and northeast parts of the country recorded the third-lowest precipitation (280.9 mm) in July since 1901. The region received an all-time low of 234.8 mm of precipitation in July last year and 249.5 mm in 1903. On the other hand, northwest India recorded the highest rainfall in July since 2001, at 258.6 mm. Mohapatra pointed out that the east and northeast regions have been witnessing a decreasing trend in monsoon rains and an increasing trend in mean temperature and minimum temperature. The IMD chief added that India recorded 1,113 heavy rainfall events and 205 extremely heavy rainfall events in July, the highest in five years.