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RBI repo rate cut possible only in July-September quarter next year: Icra

16 Aug 2023 Evaluate

Domestic ratings agency Icra has said it expects a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to happen only in the July-September quarter next year. It stated the overall cuts in the cycle will be a shallow 0.50-0.75 per cent.

However, it said a rate hike by RBI is possible only if the headline inflation is at over 6 per cent for two consecutive quarters. The agency said the MPC's (Monetary Policy Committee) latest forecasts suggest inflation will remain above 5 per cent through Q1 FY2025, based on which we have pushed out our forecast for the earliest cut to Q2 FY2025.

Consumer price inflation (CPI) spiked to a 15-month high of 7.4 per cent for July. Icra’s chief economist Aditi Nayar said ‘The data for food prices for early August 2023 is not very promising, and we expect the headline CPI inflation to print above the 6.5 per cent mark in August, before cooling off materially in September.’


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