Rising production of intermediate goods and the government's reform initiatives led the business climate in the country to improve in the month of March. As per the BluFin Business Cycle Indicator (BCI), which reflects various macro-economic trends on a monthly basis, stood at 166.6 points in March, 4.7% higher compared to the same month last year, suggesting that the Indian economy is growing at a faster rate than the previous year.
The key factors behind the strong improvement were improving foreign trade statistics, rising production of intermediate goods, moderating international metal prices and policy reforms leading to shrinking expenditures, rising revenues and lower government borrowing. In addition to this, indicators such as earnings from railway freight traffic and electricity production have also shown a significant improvement compared to the same time last year, however, domestic air travel and a weak currency impacted the growth.
Further, the report also highlighted that the recovery signaled by the BCI is riding primarily on an improving intermediate sector, apart from a declining interest rate regime. On infrastructure sector it said that, the rise in Gross Fixed Capital Formation over the past few quarters indicating rising government investment in infrastructure projects corroborates the improvement in this sector.
Indicating a reversal in the economic slowdown since July 2012, financial information provider BluFin also expects that the economic growth in India will gather momentum by the second quarter of FY14. However, it appears that the recovery in the quarters to come is likely to be slower than in the past recoveries.
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