Global uncertainty, domestic disruptions to keep inflation elevated for coming months: Finance ministry

22 Aug 2023 Evaluate

The finance ministry, in its Monthly Economic Review for July, has said that the inflation in food items is likely to be transitory as preemptive measures by the government and arrival of fresh crops will cool prices, even though global uncertainty and domestic disruptions may keep inflationary pressures elevated for the coming months. It said going forward, while domestic consumption and investment demand are expected to continue driving growth, enhanced provision for capital expenditure by the government in the current fiscal (FY24) is now leading to crowding in of private investment. The consumer price index based retail inflation spiked to a 15-month high of 7.44 per cent in July 2023, with specific food commodities mainly driving the increase. Core inflation, however, stayed at a 39-month low of 4.9 per cent.

The report said the government has already taken preemptive measures to restrain food inflation which, along with the arrival of fresh stock, is likely to subside price pressure in the market soon. Though food inflation in July is perhaps the third highest since the new CPI series began in 2014, only 48 per cent of food items have inflation of above 6 per cent, and this includes 14 food items with inflation in double digits. Items like tomato, green chilli, ginger and garlic witnessed inflation of more than 50 per cent. Hence, the abnormal increase in prices of certain specific items led to high food inflation in July 2023.

It further said that the agricultural sector is picking up momentum with significant advancement in monsoon and kharif sowing. The procurement of wheat and rice has been progressing well, increasing the buffer stock levels of food grains to ensure food security in the country. With regard to investment, it said the government's continued emphasis on capital expenditure is expected to drive growth in the coming years. The Union government in FY24 budget increased the capital outlay by 33.3 per cent, raising the share of capital expenditure in total expenditure from 12.3 per cent in 2017-18 to 22.4 per cent in 2023-24 (BE).

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