Erratic monsoon to keep food inflation at elevated levels, hit demand in rural India: CARE Ratings

30 Aug 2023 Evaluate

Expressing some concern over India’s monsoon and inflation, CARE Ratings in a report titled 'Erratic Monsoon, Food Prices, and Rural Demand' has said that the erratic monsoon, which is affecting sowing, and global developments will keep the food inflation at elevated levels and would also hit the demand in rural India owing to lower income and inflation. It added the government's budgeted cuts on subsidies introduced during the pandemic can further weaken rural demand.

According to the report, an uneven monsoon increases the risk to domestic food prices, while global developments don't support domestic inflationary conditions either. It said the food inflation will maintain an elevated trajectory in the coming months, gradually receding by October in conjunction with the influx of fresh harvest into the market. The report said ‘our analysis indicates that food and beverage inflation is projected to peak, reaching an average of 9.4% in the second quarter of FY24. Subsequently, we expect a gradual cooling, with an estimated 6.9% in the third quarter of FY24, followed by a further decline to 5.9% in the fourth quarter of FY24’.

The risk to global food prices remains elevated with recent weather-related disruptions in South Asian countries and geopolitical developments. CARE Ratings said ‘higher global food prices can pass through to domestic consumption baskets as import dependency remains high on some items like edible oil and pulses. India's import dependency of pulses and edible oil for domestic consumption currently stands at around 55 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively’. The erratic progress of the southwest monsoon has resulted in a spike in the prices of the domestic food basket, which has a weight of about 40 per cent in the CPI inflation basket.

A deficit monsoon has adversely affected kharif sowing with a decline in the sowing of pulses (-8.3 per cent yoy), oilseeds (-0.9 per cent yoy), and cotton (-1.8 per cent yoy). Lower rainfall and the resultant lower reservoir levels will have implications for the rabi crops that have a higher dependency on irrigation. The cumulative water levels in 146 key reservoirs across India have dipped below the 10-year average as a result of slow monsoon progress over the past week. Pulses, coarse grains, and oil seeds remain India's most rain-dependent food crops, with a higher proportion of unirrigated areas. A deficit in the sowing of these crops can further add to the inflationary pressures.

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