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India’s economic growth to weaken: OECD

11 Apr 2013 Evaluate

Contrary to economic projections made by the Indian government, the Paris-based think tank OECD has said that leading indicators point towards weakening growth in India. Its Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) for India slipped to 96.8 in February from 97.1 in January. However, CLIs for the United Kingdom, Canada, Brazil and Russia including those in euro-zone point to growth close to trend rates.

The OECD's estimation is contrary to the projections of the Indian government which expects growth to improve to over 6% in 2013-14 from 5% in the previous financial year. Even Asian Development Bank (ADB) recently pegged India’s growth in 2013-14 to 6%. To boost country's economic growth, the Indian government has taken several steps, including further liberalization of foreign investment policy and fast tracking mega projects.

CLIs, which include various parameters, are designed to predict turning-points in economic activity relative to trend. They point to growth picking up in major economies. The monthly indicator for the 33 OECD member countries increased slightly to 100.5 in February from 100.4 in the previous month. Likewise, the CLIs continue to point to an economic growth firming in the US and Japan.

On the outlook front, the CLI for China provides a more positive outlook compared with last month's assessment and for the euro area as a whole, and in particular in Germany, the CLIs continue to indicate pick-up in growth.

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