Fitch retains India’s growth forecast at 6.3% for FY24

14 Sep 2023 Evaluate

Retaining India’s growth forecast at 6.3% for the current fiscal year (FY24), Fitch Ratings in its September update of the Global Economic Outlook has said that the Indian economy continues to show resilience despite tighter monetary policy and weakness in exports, with growth outpacing other countries in the region. But, it said upped year-end inflation projection on El Nino to threaten growth. The Indian economy grew 7.8% in the April-June quarter of current fiscal on strong services sector activity and robust demand. The agency has forecasted 6.5% growth rate for the next fiscal.

However, it said that high-frequency indicators suggest that the pace of growth in the July-September quarter is likely to moderate, as exports continue to weaken, credit growth flatlines and the Reserve Bank of India’s latest bimonthly consumer confidence survey shows consumers becoming a little more pessimistic on income and employment prospects. On the price front, it said that the temporary increases in inflation, in particular rising food inflation, in coming months could curb households’ discretionary spending power.

It said ‘the inflation impact on consumers may be temporary but other more fundamental factors are weighing on the economy. 'India will not be immune to the global economic slowdown and the domestic economy will be affected by the lagged impact of the RBI’s 250bps of hikes in the past year, while a poor monsoon season could complicate the RBI’s control of inflation’. It added ‘the increase in inflation in recent months has been driven largely by a sharp increase in the price of tomatoes and other food products’.

Notwithstanding the risk of higher food prices, Fitch maintained its RBI’s benchmark interest rate forecast at 6.5% for the end of this calendar year. It said the government has reacted by importing greater quantities of food (especially tomatoes), temporarily scrapping the import duty on wheat and restricting sugar exports. It further said ‘nevertheless, the threat of El Nino means that inflation could exceed our forecasts, although the impact on consumers and the economy is likely to be temporary’, and added that it expects 2023-end retail or CPI inflation at 5.5%, higher than its previous forecast of 5%.

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