India’s economic growth to be above 6% in FY24: RBI MPC member

20 Sep 2023 Evaluate

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal has said that the country’s economic growth will be above 6 per cent in the current fiscal (FY24) as the country has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks. She further said that a global slowdown reducing India’s export growth, geopolitics fueling oil and food prices, and erratic weather are some of the continuing risks that the country faces. She said ‘India has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks’. While GDP growth in 2022-23 was 7.2 per cent, lower than 9.1 per cent in 2021-22, the RBI projects India’s GDP to grow at 6.5 per cent in the FY24.

Regarding retail inflation will decline to RBI’s target of 4 per cent, she said inflation expectations are getting anchored at around 4 per cent. She noted ‘For a long time now, firms’ inflation expectations are around 4 per cent. That means, despite cost shocks, their price increases do not exceed 4 per cent’. Observing that core inflation is softening, she said inflation targeting is teaching price-setters to look through transient supply shocks. According to Goyal, under transient even if repeated supply shocks (like the Ukraine war), monetary tightening should be adequate to anchor inflation expectations, but not so sharp as to impose a large growth sacrifice on the economy. She opined ‘But other supply-side policies will continue to reduce inflation’.

Talking about rising crude oil prices and its impact on the government’s subsidy figures and inflation, Goyal said the government and oil companies have built-up counter-cyclical buffers by not fully passing through a fall in international crude oil prices. Emphasising that in a well- established inflation targeting regime, transient rise in cost is looked through and does not have second round effects, she noted that high crude oil prices have intensified efforts to diversify away from oil. She said ‘So overall we are seeing less pass-through of higher oil prices to Indian inflation’.

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