Inflation eases to lowest rate in more than three years at 5.96% in March

15 Apr 2013 Evaluate

In a big relief, the annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, eased to a 40-month low at 5.96% (Provisional) for the month of March, 2013 (over March, 2012) as compared to 6.84% (Provisional) for the previous month and 7.69% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Build up inflation in the financial year so far, too has increased and stood at 5.96% compared to a buildup of 7.69% in the corresponding period of the previous year. However, the January inflation figures have been revised upward to 7.31% from 6.62%.

However, manufactured products, which carry weight of 64.97% in the index, rose by 0.1% to 148.4 (Provisional) from 148.2 (Provisional) for the previous month. The index for 'Food Products' group declined by 0.5% to 164.9 (Provisional) from 165.7 (Provisional) for the previous month. The index of Fuel & Power, which has weight of 14.91%, rose by 3.0% to 195.2 (Provisional) from 189.5 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of zinc concentrate, iron ore, crude petroleum and copper ore.

The index of Primary Articles, having weight of 20.12% too rose by 0.4% to 223.6 (Provisional) from 222.7 (Provisional) for the previous month. The index for 'Non-Food Articles' group rose by 0.6% to 206.9 (Provisional) from 205.60 (Provisional) for the previous month, while the index for 'Minerals' group rose by 2.1% to 357.4 (Provisional) from 350.1 (Provisional) for the previous month.

There was a wide expectation that the inflation might have edged higher in March, given the index snapped the four month’s decelerating trend in the previous month. But the surprise slowdown in numbers has further strengthened the case for rate cut in RBI’s May 3 Policy Review as these figures now fall within the RBI’s comfort level. Reiterating that India's inflation still remains high, RBI governor Duvvuri Subbarao said that the inflation numbers should come down to a 4-6% range, in order to facilitate monetary easing.

Meanwhile, the consistent fall in core inflation, or inflation that excludes volatile food and fuel prices, too provides the central bank with some room to cut policy rates by 25 basis points in its Policy review in May. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), has so far responded to a slight easing in headline inflation in recent months with two 25 basis point cuts this year to bring the benchmark repo rate to 7.50%.

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