Citing slowing world economy, rising risk of subnormal monsoons and delayed effect of rate hike, S&P Global Ratings in its report has retained India's growth forecast at 6 per cent for current fiscal (FY24). It noted growth this year will be weaker than in 2022, but our outlook remains broadly favourable. Indian economy grew 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 fiscal year which ended March 2023.
While retaining its growth forecast for the current fiscal at 6 per cent, S&P also maintained that India's economy will grow 6.9 per cent in both 2024-25 and 2025-26 fiscal years. S&P said India's consumption growth as well as capital expenditure remained ‘strong’ in the June quarter. Though, it sees the recent spike in vegetable price inflation as being temporary, but revised up the full fiscal retail inflation forecast to 5.5 per cent, from 5 per cent earlier, on higher global oil prices.
With regard to growth in the Asia Pacific region, S&P said it remains a ‘multi-speed region’ and slightly raised its forecast for 2023 to 3.9 per cent amid domestic resilience. It said ‘In all, growth in the region has generally remained resilient. Year-on-year GDP growth picked up in the second quarter in both developed and emerging Asian economies. India led again, with GDP growing 4.2 per cent quarter on quarter to a level 7.8 per cent up on a year ago’.
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