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  3. CRISIL lowers Economy’s current fiscal growth forecast to 6 percent

CRISIL lowers Economy’s current fiscal growth forecast to 6 percent

16 Apr 2013 Evaluate

CRISIL, India's leading rating agency, has revised the Indian economy’s growth forecast to 6 percent for the FY14 from 6.4% which was estimated earlier. CRISIL is of the view that high lending rates, weak household consumption and issues in mining and project clearances would hurt growth in the current fiscal.

The rating agency CRISIL has said that presently lower than expected demand from the household has been impacting the manufacturing sector. Further, issues around policy-making, especially in mining and the lack of speedy project clearances, which continue to hurt manufacturing, infrastructure and investment activity topped CRISIL's list of factors that would hurt the growth.      

Further the report stated that the domestic economy is struggling with downward rigidity wherein the repo rate cuts by the Reserve Bank are not getting passed in lending rates. On the global economy’s slowdown, it said that the lowering of the European GDP forecast to -0.5 percent from the earlier -0.1 percent by some estimates may have an adverse impact on the domestic growth. Despite these reasons the growth in FY14 is believed to be greater than last year's 5 percent. 

Regarding the macro-economic indicators, CRISIL expects the fiscal deficit during FY14 to be at 5.1 percent against the budget estimate of 4.8 percent saying government will not be able meet the 19 percent growth target in tax collections due to lower growth. Current Account Deficit (CAD) which is expected to certainly breach record highs in FY13, could go down to 4.5 percent in the current fiscal, however would not give any respite. On the inflation front, it said that inflation which cooled to a record 39 month low in March at 5.96 percent will be at 6.3 percent by March 2014, adding that it is lowering its estimate from 6.5 percent.   

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