The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its annual publication, World Economic Outlook (WEO), has projected that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to remain strong at 6.3% in both 2023 and 2024. This is an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point for 2023, reflecting stronger than expected consumption during April-June. The Fund had raised its growth forecast for India for this year by 20 basis points to 6.1 per cent in July and has increased it for the second time. It noted monetary policy projections are consistent with achieving the Reserve Bank of India's inflation target over the medium term.
On the oil import, it said about 35 to 40 per cent of India's crude oil imports came from Russia during April-June 2023, a stark rise from less than 5 per cent before the war in Ukraine. It said ‘While India's oil exports (mostly petroleum products) are small relative to its oil imports (mostly crude oil), India increased its oil exports to the European Union substantially’.
However, the IMF reduced the growth forecast for China by 20 basis points to 5% for 2023 and by 30 basis points to 4.2% for 2024, citing the crash in the real estate sector that has been dragging the economy down. It further said ‘The strongest recovery among major economies has been in the US, where GDP in 2023 is estimated to exceed its pre-pandemic path. The euro area has recovered, though less strongly - with output still 2.2% below pre-pandemic projections, reflecting greater exposure to the war in Ukraine and the associated adverse terms-of-trade shock, as well as a spike in imported energy prices’.
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