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  3. Economy has bottomed out, estimated to grow at 6.4% this fiscal: PMEAC

Economy has bottomed out, estimated to grow at 6.4% this fiscal: PMEAC

23 Apr 2013 Evaluate

C. Rangarajan releasing a report on Review of the Economy 2012-13 stated that improvement in performance of agriculture and manufacturing sectors could elevate the economic growth rate to 6.4% in 2013-14 from 5% in the last fiscal. Rangarajan, said that the farm sector is likely to show some improvement and is projected to grow at 3.5% in 2013-14, while the manufacturing sector is projected to grow at 4% and services at 7.7%.

The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) report has further stated that economy bottomed out and the possibility of achieving 7% growth is also not ruled out. However, for the current financial year, PMEAC, expressed concerns that despite having high investment rate of 35.8%, economy could grow only 5% in the year, thereby refraining from tweaking the numbers that advance estimate of centeral statistic office have pegged and also the one that is the worst in a decade.

Pointing out that the CAD is still at a very high level, PMEAC, projected the Current Account Deficit to be at $100 billion or about 4.7% of GDP during 2013-14 with merchandise trade deficit projected at $213 billion or 9.9% of GDP and net invisible earnings projected to be $113 billion or 5.3% of GDP in 2013-14. Rangarajan said that imports of coal, oil and gold need to be watched out and said that the import bill on account of oil is expected to be at $125 billion this fiscal, 14% higher than the previous year.

With regards to Centre’s fiscal deficit, the PMEAC expects it to touch Rs 542,499 crore in 2013-14 as per the Budget estimates. In the revised Budget estimate of 2012-13 it was at Rs 520,924 crore. On inflation front, PMEAC estimate the headline WPI inflation to be around 6% in 2013-14 with primary food inflation around at 8%, fuel inflation at about 11% and manufactured goods at around 4%.

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