Fitch revises India’s medium-term growth estimate upward by 70 basis points to 6.2%

07 Nov 2023 Evaluate

With an improvement in the employment rate and a modest increase in the working-age population forecast, Fitch Ratings in its latest report has raised India's medium-term potential growth estimate by 70 basis points to 6.2 per cent from 5.5 percent earlier estimates. It attributed the higher growth forecast for India to a swift recovery in labour force participation rates, following significant declines in 2020. It defined the medium term as a period from 2023 to 2027. It added that India's labour productivity forecast is also higher. 

India's projected labour supply growth is also lower relative to 2019 given the expected negative growth in the participation rate. It further said while the participation rate has recovered from its pandemic slump, it remains significantly below levels recorded in the early 2000s, partly as the employment rate among women remains very low.

It projected medium-term potential growth for the 10 emerging economies at 4 per cent, down from 4.3 per cent from the previous estimate. This was driven by a 0.7 percentage point (pp) cut in China's growth estimate. It has lowered China's supply-side GDP growth potential to 4.6 per cent from 5.3 per cent. It said China's growth has slowed sharply in recent years and prospects for capital deepening have deteriorated as the property slump weighs heavily on the investment outlook. It also cut Russia's potential growth, by 0.8pp to 0.8 per cent. By contrast, it made upward revisions to Brazil, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Poland and Turkey relative to its previous estimates.

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