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  3. IMD expects normal rainfall in June-September monsoon

IMD expects normal rainfall in June-September monsoon

29 Apr 2013 Evaluate

As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast, the June-September monsoon for the current year would remain normal. Abandoning the possibility of drought in the country, the meteorological department’s prediction is likely to provide a measure of relief to policymakers, and will deliver a boost to the rain-dependent agricultural sector that employs six out of ten Indian workers.         

While announcing IMD’s findings, Science Minister Jaipal Reddy said monsoon rainfall will be around 98% of the 50-year average of 89cm. The IMD classifies rainfall within a 4% window of 89cm as normal and a 5-15% deficiency as below normal. Anything lower, or less than 81cm, usually indicates drought conditions.

The June-September monsoon, being the main source of water for agriculture, generates nearly 80% of India’s annual rainfall and is vital for the economy’s growth as the agriculture sector represents around 50% of India’s gross domestic product. Rain is also important for traders dealing in food and cash crops, as any shortfall can inject price volatility into the markets.   

IMD will revise the monsoon forecast towards the end of June and will also estimate the rainfall for July and August, during which most of the areas of the country get maximum rain. At the same time, it will also gauge how the monsoon will progress over broad geographical divisions such as the northwest, northeast, south and central India. In fact IMD’s April forecast is considered at best indicator as in the last five years, only twice has monsoon rainfall been less than what IMD indicated in April.

On the other hand, IMD’s forecasting models have an error margin of 5%. IMD forecasted normal monsoon in the last year also, while, India faced 7 percent deficit in rain mainly due to poor rain in June and July.

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