Therating agency ICRA in its latest report has said that the credit metrics ofIndia Inc. are likely to show slight sequential improvement in Q3 FY2024, withinterest coverage increasing to 4.5-5.0 times in Q3 FY2024 from 4.5 times in Q2FY2024. The credit metrics would result from improved earnings ofCorporate India, on the back of continuing, albeit moderating tailwinds fromcommodity prices and seasonally strong demand during the recently concludedfestive season.
ICRA’s analysis of the Q2 FY2024 performance of 601 listedcompanies (excluding financial sector entities) revealed expectedly improvedoperating profit margins (OPM), increasing by 398 bps and 64 bps on a YoY andsequential basis, respectively. This was primarily aided by softening incommodity prices. However, while the input costs softened in recent months,they remain elevated compared to the historic levels, and accordingly, IndiaInc.’s OPM is yet to revive to its historic highs.
According to the report, improvement in earnings coupled with apause in rate hikes by the MPC in the recent past (thereby restricting theupward movement in finance cost), led to YoY improvement in interest coverageratio to 4.5 times for Q2 FY2024 from 3.9 times in Q2 FY2023 for ICRA’s sampleset companies. However, it remained flattish on a sequential basis. An expectedrevival in earnings coupled with pause on rate hike is likely to result in animprovement in India Inc’s interest coverage to 4.5-5.0 times in Q3 FY2024,although inflationary trends remain a monitorable in the long run.
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