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  3. India’s April manufacturing PMI expands the least since Nov'11; output growth weakest in 4-year

India’s April manufacturing PMI expands the least since Nov'11; output growth weakest in 4-year

02 May 2013 Evaluate

Expanding at its slowest pace since November 2011, the seasonally adjusted HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index, a composite indicator of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy slowed to 51 in April against its previous reading of 52 in March, registering its second monthly decline. Production at Indian factories increased at the slowest pace in forty-nine months in April, mainly on account of deceleration in domestic orders and persistent power shortages. Nevertheless, the PMI index, which gauges business activity in Indian factories but not its utilities, has held above the watershed 50 level that divides growth from contraction for over four years.

Further, although April data signaled rise in order book volumes for the forty-ninth month, amid evidence of firm demand and new product launches, the overall rate of expansion was modest and the slowest since September 2011. The new business index, which rose an 18-month high in January, also fell for its second straight month to its lowest since November 2011.

Encouragingly, input and output price inflation eased. Although average prices paid for inputs rose solidly, but at the slowest rate since June 2010. Input prices in the Indian manufacturing sector rose for the forty-ninth consecutive month. Manufacturers increased their workforces further during the month, extending the current period of job creation to 14 months. Further even a pick up in the export orders index suggested factories could step up production in coming months. The latest PMI also pointed out ebbing inflation pressures last month with both costs of raw material and prices charged rising at a slower pace than March.

Thus, the survey suggests with the growth momentum slowing and inflation receding, the RBI is likely to cut the policy rate this week, to arrest the worst economic slowdown in a decade. The Reserve Bank of India, has slashed its key lending rate twice so far this year by 25 basis points each time, lowering the rate to 7.5% after leaving it on hold for nine months.

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