RBI sees limited space for further easing of monetary policy

03 May 2013 Evaluate

Striking a hawkish tone a day before when it is widely expected to cut interest rate, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments 2012-13 report, said that scope for further easing of monetary policy this fiscal year is limited. The apex bank’s cautious language in its macroeconomic survey could dent rising hopes for a rate cut.

As per the survey, though demand-side inflation pressures reduced, high consumer price inflation along with the current account deficit (CAD) well above sustainable levels, limit the space for monetary policy to support growth. On the inflation front, it said that trend of downward momentum will continue through first half, whereas suppressed inflation in form of upward revision in energy prices and a base effect will lead to an increase in the second half of the fiscal.

Average headline inflation as per the survey is expected to moderate to 6.5 percent from 7.3 percent. India's headline inflation in March fell to its lowest in more than three years at 5.96 percent, but the consumer price index remained elevated at 10.39%

On the growth front, revival is expected in the current fiscal, but the recovery process would be modest in backdrop of stagnating industrial output. Further, the central bank expects the growth to improve to 6 percent in 2013-14, and about 5 percent in the fiscal year that ended in March.

As per the survey, if the government continues with its recent efforts of cutting expenditure to meet the fiscal consolidation target, pressure on the CAD is expected to reduce. For the third quarter of 2012-13, the CAD/GDP ratio rose to a record 6.7 percent and is expected to be at a new high of around 5 percent for the year 2012-13, notwithstanding the likely improvement in last quarter.

For the 2012-13 financial year, the central bank has already slashed repo rate by 100 basis points and is further expected to cut the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent amid economy growing at its slowest in a decade.

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