Markets eke out slender gains on first day of New Year 2024

Markets started the New Calendar Year on quiet note with frontline gauges ending slightly in green. Key gauges made a negative start in absence on regional cues. Sentiments remained dampened as the output of eight core industries slipped to a six-month low of 7.8 per cent in November 2023 due to a decline in the output of crude oil and cement sectors. The final growth rate of Index of Eight Core Industries for August 2023 is revised to 13.4 per cent. The cumulative growth rate of Index of Eight Core Industries during April to November, 2023-24 is 8.6 per cent (provisional) as compared to the corresponding period of last year. Besides, the data released by the Controller General of Accounts showed that the central government's fiscal deficit widened to Rs 9.07 lakh crore in April-November from Rs 8.04 lakh crore in April-October.

However, markets cut losses and entered into green terrain as traders took support with Finance Ministry’s statement that Indian economy's GDP growth rate in 2023-24 to ‘comfortably’ exceed its forecast of 6.5 percent despite the risks to growth and stability outlook that mainly emanate from outside the country. It added that despite declining in H1 of the current fiscal, FDI inflows to India are expected to rebound on account of strong macroeconomic fundamentals, favourable business environment and rising growth, in the coming months. Market exhibited strength and extended gains in last leg of trade, led by optimism on rate cuts, easing global inflation, and softer bond yields. But profit booking in dying hour of trade dragged domestic indices near neutral lines as lingering concerns over Red Sea disruptions pose short-term risks to global supply chains and freight costs. Traders also turned anxious after a series of strong earthquakes hit the western coast of Japan, the country issued tsunami alerts and told people to evacuate the seaside areas. The quakes that took place off the Ishikawa coast, including a preliminary one of 7.6 magnitude.

On the global front, European and Asian stock markets remained closed today on New Year’s Day. Back home, auto stocks ended lower, amid weak sales data for December month. Mahindra & Mahindra’s (M&M) Farm Equipment Sector (FES) has reported 17.66% fall in total tractor sales (Domestic + Exports) during December 2023 at 19,138 units, as against 23,243 units for the same period last year, while Maruti Suzuki India has reported a 1.28 per cent decline in total sales at 1,37,551 units in December 2023. The company had posted total sales of 1,39,347 units in the same month a year ago. 

Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 31.68 points or 0.04% to 72,271.94 and the CNX Nifty was up by 10.50 points or 0.05% to 21,741.90.   

The BSE Sensex touched high and low of 72,561.91 and 72,031.23, respectively. There were 15 stocks advancing against 15 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices ended in green; the BSE Mid cap index rose 0.54%, while Small cap index was up by 0.73%.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were PSU up by 0.84%, Energy up by 0.82%, Telecom up by 0.76%, Oil & Gas up by 0.64% and Basic Materials up by 0.59%, while Auto down by 0.19%, Bankex down by 0.05% and Consumer Durables down by 0.02% were the few losing indices on the BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Nestle up by 2.89%, Tech Mahindra up by 2.00%, Tata Motors up by 1.25%, Wipro up by 1.19% and HCL Tech up by 1.16%. On the flip side, Bharti Airtel down by 1.92%, Mahindra & Mahindra down by 1.43%, Bajaj Finserv down by 0.66%, NTPC down by 0.53% and HDFC Bank down by 0.53% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) in its latest data has said that the government’s fiscal deficit at the end of November stood at Rs 9.06 lakh crore or 50.7 per cent of the full-year budget estimate. In absolute terms, the fiscal deficit - the difference between expenditure and revenue - was at Rs 9,06,584 crore during the April-October period of 2023-24. In the corresponding period last year, the deficit was at 58.9 per cent of the budget estimates of 2022-23. For 2023-24, the fiscal deficit of the government is estimated to be at Rs 17.86 lakh crore or 5.9 per cent of the GDP.

It stated the Government of India received Rs 17.4 lakh crore (64.3 per cent of corresponding BE 2023-24 of total receipts) up to November 2023 comprising Rs 14.35 lakh crore tax revenue (net), Rs 2.84 lakh crore of non-tax revenue and Rs 25,463 crore of non-debt capital receipts. Non-debt capital receipts consist of recovery of loans and miscellaneous capital receipts.

As per the CGA data, total expenditure incurred by the central government was at Rs 26.52 lakh crore (58.9 per cent of corresponding BE 2023-24) during April-November 2023. Out of the total expenditure, Rs 20.66 lakh crore was on revenue account and Rs 5.85 lakh crore was on capital account. Continuing the path of fiscal consolidation, the government intends to bring the fiscal deficit below 4.5 per cent of GDP by 2025-26.

The CNX Nifty traded in a range of 21,680.85 and 21,834.35. There were 26 stocks advancing against 24 stocks declining on the index.   

The top gainers on Nifty were Nestle up by 2.98%, Adani Enterprises up by 2.40%, Adani Ports up by 2.29%, Tech Mahindra up by 1.93% and Coal India up by 1.54%. On the flip side, Eicher Motors down by 2.54%, Bharti Airtel down by 1.86%, Mahindra & Mahindra down by 1.51%, Bajaj Auto down by 1.41% and Hindalco down by 0.72% were the top losers.