The United Nations (UN) World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2024 report has said that India’s Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to remain strong at 6.2 per cent in 2024 mainly supported by resilient private consumption and strong public investment. It also said that GDP in South Asia is projected to increase by 5.2 per cent in 2024, driven by a robust expansion in India, which remains the fastest-growing large economy in the world. India's GDP is projected to increase to 6.6 per cent in 2025. It said while manufacturing and services sectors will continue to support the economy, erratic rainfall patterns will likely dampen agricultural output.
According to the report, consumer price inflation in India is expected to decelerate from 5.7 per cent in 2023 to 4.5 per cent in 2024, staying within the two to six per cent medium-term inflation target range set by the Central Bank. The risk of a surge in inflation in the coming months cannot be ruled out, however, as potential increases in commodity prices and the adverse impact of climate events on food prices could disrupt the pace of disinflation. The labour market situation in South Asia remained fragile in 2023 despite improvements in some countries. In India, labour market indicators improved over the year, with labour force participation increasing in August to its highest rate since the onset of the pandemic.
It further said the unemployment rate averaged 7.1 per cent in September, the lowest value in a year, with unemployment in rural areas falling despite weaker monsoon rains. Youth unemployment rates declined significantly during the first quarter of 2023 to the lowest value since the pandemic. It also noted that the Reserve Bank of India has been cautious about opening the country's financial markets and has been implementing appropriate risk management systems.
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