The World Bank in its Global Economic Prospects report has retained India’s economic growth forecast at 6.3% for the current financial year (FY2023-24 -- April 2023 to March 2024). It said India is anticipated to maintain the fastest growth rate among the world’s largest economies, but its post-pandemic recovery is expected to slow. It added that growth is then expected to recover gradually, edging up to 6.4% in FY2024-25 and 6.5 percent in FY2025-26.
It said investment is envisaged to decelerate marginally but remain robust, supported by higher public investment and improved corporate balance sheets, including in the banking sector. Private consumption growth is likely to taper off, as the post-pandemic pent-up demand diminishes and persistent high food price inflation is likely to constrain spending, particularly among low income households. Meanwhile, government consumption is expected to grow slowly, in line with the central government’s efforts to lower the share of current spending. It further said in India, government revenues are expected to gain from solid corporate profits, and current expenditures are likely to decrease with the conclusion of pandemic-related measures. Interest payments are projected to be large in countries with elevated debt levels, including India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
However, the Bank warned that global growth in 2024 is set to slow for a third year in a row, in what could delay poverty reduction and exacerbate debt levels in many developing countries. Global GDP is likely to grow 2.4% in 2024, it said. That compares to 2.6% in 2023, 3% in 2022 and 6.2% in 2021 when there was a rebound as the pandemic ended. That would make growth weaker in the 2020-2024 period than during the years surrounding the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, the late 1990s Asian financial crisis and downturns in the early 2000s.
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