Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Ashima Goyal has said that India's macro-fundamentals strengthened even though it faced severe external shocks (Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Hamas war, oil prices, Houthi attacks) since 2020. She said the rupee has been relatively stable due to these factors.
Goyal said the country's economic diversity, adequate buffers, and feasible reforms have enabled policies to be countercyclical. With more and more firms and consumers internalising the inflation target, the economy is likely to approach the RBI's inflation target of 4 per cent this year. She noted that Indian economy is projected to grow 7.3 per cent in the current fiscal, higher than 7.2 per cent in 2022-23. The Red Sea route is also crucial for energy shipments.
Talking on whether the government needs to make a more realistic assessment of its medium-term fiscal deficit target, she said tax buoyancy from higher growth and from tax reform, combined with counter-cyclical fiscal policy, gives India a possible escape route from a history of higher deficits that created debt ratios exceeding its peer countries. She said ‘fiscal consolidation will strengthen our macroeconomic fundamentals even more and reduce risks further, while building space to respond to future shocks and the announced medium-term fiscal deficit is eminently feasible’.
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