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Marketing margins on retail sales of auto fuels for Indian OMCs improved with reduction in crude prices: ICRA

24 Jan 2024 Evaluate

Rating agency ICRA in its latest report has highlighted that the marketing margins on retail sales of auto fuels for the Indian oil marketing companies (OMCs) have improved in the recent weeks with reduction in crude prices. It said the prices moderated in the last few months owing to tepid Chinese oil demand coupled with elevated production and inventory levels in the US, despite tightening supply, post the extension of supply cuts by the OPEC+. 

According to the report, the Special Additional Excise Duty (SAED) on petroleum products was reduced in line with international product prices. It had witnessed multiple revisions since it was initially imposed in July 2022. In the latest revision on January 01, 2024, the SAED was decreased on diesel and ATF to nil and remained nil on petrol. The end of summer season and reduction in demand along with higher product supplies decreased the crack spreads for gasoline. The gasoil prices also fell due to demand-side issues. There was no pick-up in China’s consumption, which put pressure on the overall demand for the products.

ICRA’s outlook on the refining & marketing sector remains stable. Petroleum, oil & lubricants (POL) consumption in India witnessed YoY growth of 5% in 9M FY2024 with a similar growth rate expected for FY2024. Further, the POL consumption is expected to witness a 3-4% growth in FY2025, driven by economic growth, increasing mobility and air travel. The domestic refining capacity is expected to increase to 306 million MT over the next three to four years from the current capacity of 254 million MT as of December 2023 to support the increased consumption and exports. ICRA expects the capacity utilisation of the PSU and the private refiners to remain healthy in FY2024. The OMCs have planned a significant capex in the refining segment. The credit profile of the incumbents is likely to improve with better profitability. Moreover, several incumbents in the sector enjoy sovereign ownership and exceptional financial flexibility. 


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