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Post Session: Quick Review

13 May 2013 Evaluate

Traditionally an auspicious occasion of ‘Akshaya Tritiya’ turned an ill-fated one for the Indian equity markets, which corrected sharply to end with a cut of close to two percent. The occasion which usually triggers the rush for safe haven saw the price of yellow metal falling too on Monday, as the dollar firmed on signs of an improving US job market.

Investors at D-street, overlooked positive macro-data and remained more worried about the negative global set-up, which was mainly seen as the factor behind the downtrend of the bourses. On the macro-front, in a big relief to policy-makers, annual rate of inflation based on the consumer prices index (CPI), declining for second straight finally came in single digit at 9.39% in April, as against 10.39% seen in the previous month.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) investigation report, pointed out at major anomalies in banks named in the Cobrapost expose, also sapped investors’ appetite for risky assets. Web portal, Cobrapost, in its string of exposures has alleged money laundering and other wrong doings by several banks and financial institutions ranging from the country's largest bank SBI to the youngest lender Yes Bank. Besides, this dismal trade deficit data also added to the pessimism. The country's trade deficit widened in the month of April to $17.8 billion, as compared to $14 billion, up by 27.1% year-on-year. While, exports were up by 1.6% at $24.16 billion, imports rose 10.9% to $41.95 billion year-on-year.

Back on street, by the close of trade, benchmark 30 share index, Sensex offloaded 400 points, to shut shop below the psychological 19700 level, last seen on May 8, 2012.  While, Nifty tumbled close to 150 points and concluded below the crucial 6000 mark. However, broader indices witnessing lesser profit-booking went home with loss of over 1.25%.

On the global front, Asian shares eased on Monday with sentiment hit by selling in commodities triggered by a strong dollar, which rose to a fresh 4-1/2-year peak against the yen on the back of growing confidence in the US economy. However, Japanese stocks surged as weakening yen improves earnings prospects for exporters and underpins the export-reliant economy. Additionally, European stocks fell for the first time in five days and U.S. equity-index futures dropped before a report that may show American retail sales declined.

Closer home, there was across the board selling with no gainers on BSE sectoral front. Nevertheless, the prominent losers were stocks from Fast Moving Consumer Goods, Capital Goods and Metal counters. On the flip side, some jewellery stocks such as Tribhovandas Bhimji, Thangamayil Jewellers, and PC Jeweller gained traction amid hopes of pick-up in sales of gold jewellery and coins on Akshaya Tritiya. Disappointment in the market also crept in with Bank of Baroda’s earning. The stocks plunged over 2.5% after the net profit for the quarter ended March 31, 2013 declined by 32.23% at Rs 1028.85 crore for the quarter, as compared to Rs 1518.18 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2012.The market breadth on the BSE ended negative; advances and declining stocks were in a ratio of 817: 1518, while 121 scrips remained unchanged. (Provisional)

The BSE Sensex lost 434.24 points or 2.16% to settle at 19688.08.The index touched a high and a low of 20109.08 and 19669.70 respectively. All the 30 stocks declined on the index.  (Provisional)

The BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices ended lower by 1.42% and 1.14% respectively. (Provisional)

On the BSE Sectoral front, FMCG down by 3.03%, Metal down by 2.73%, Capital Goods down by 2.63%, Auto down by 2.22% and Oil & Gas down by 1.91%, were the top losers while there were no gainers in the space. (Provisional)

The top losers on the Sensex were ITC down by 5.31%, Tata Steel down by 4.22%, Bharti Airtel down by 4.14%, Tata Motors down by 3.27% and L&T down by 2.96% while there were no gainers in the index. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, in a big relief to policy-makers, annual rate of inflation, based on the consumer prices index (CPI), declining for second straight month, finally came in single digit at 9.39% in April as against 10.39% seen in the previous month. The decline was despite the double digit growth of food inflation for consumers, which rose an annual 10.61% in April, nevertheless, slower than an annual rise of 12.42% in March.

As per the data, provisional annual inflation rate based on all India general CPI (Combined) for April 2013 on point to point basis stood at 9.39% as compared to 10.39% final inflation number for March 2013.

Further, CPI numbers for rural, urban and combined were at 128.7, 127.4 and 128.1 respectively. The corresponding inflation rates for rural and urban areas too came in single digit for the first time in 2013-14 at 9.16% and 9.73% respectively for April.  While final inflation rates for rural and urban for the month of March stood at 10.41% and 10.38% respectively.

Among all the constituents that make the CPI, cereals recorded the highest inflation of 16.65% in April. At the second spot stood the inflation in Eggs, Fish and meat at 13.60%, while inflation in Pulses and products stood at 10.91% on an annual basis.

India, so far, has the highest retail inflation among the BRICS group of emerging economies - Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa. However, unlike most central banks, the Reserve Bank of India mainly uses the wholesale price index (WPI) for setting up its monetary policy. Meanwhile, after the single digit retail inflation figures, the expectation is that Inflation as measured by India's benchmark wholesale price index would ease the lowest level since November 2009, at 5.50% in April.

India VIX, a gauge for markets short term expectation of volatility gained 3.97% at 17.51 from its previous close of 16.84 on Saturday. (Provisional)

The CNX Nifty lost 133.40 points or 2.18% to settle at 5,973.85. The index touched high and low of 6,104.95 and 5,972.90 respectively. There were 30 declining stocks on the index. (Provisional)

The top losers on the Nifty were ITC down by 5.12%, Reliance Infrastructure down by 4.97%, Bharti Airtel down by 4.27%, Tata Steel down by 4.20% and Tata Motors down by 3.67% while there were no gainers. (Provisional)

Most of the European markets were trading in red with, France’s CAC 40 down by 0.46%, Germany’s DAX down by 0.69% and the United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 down by 0.33%.

Asian markets ended mostly lower on Monday, as investors sentiment were hit by selling in commodities triggered by a strong dollar. However, Japanese market closed higher, on the back of weakening yen as it improves earnings prospects for exporters and underpins the export-reliant economy. Shanghai stocks went home with red mark, dragged by gold producers and financial firms. Hong Kong shares closed lower after suffering worst loss in almost a month as Ping An Insurance fell sharply after regulators slapped a three-month ban on its brokerage unit for helping list a fraudulent Chinese company.

Asian Indices

Last Trade

Change in Points

Change in %

Shanghai Composite

2,241.92

-4.91

-0.22

Hang Seng

22,989.81

-331.41

-1.42

Jakarta Composite

5,054.63

-51.31

-1.00

KLSE Composite

 1,787.90

15.52

0.88

Nikkei 225

14,782.21

174.67

1.20

Straits Times

3,428.96

-14.81

-0.43

KOSPI Composite

1,948.70

3.95

0.20

Taiwan Weighted

8,248.32

-31.94

-0.39

About MoneyWorks4Me

MoneyWorks4Me is a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser (IA) dedicated to helping investors build long-term wealth through transparent, research-driven, conflict-free guidance. Founded in 2008, we started our journey as a Research Analyst (RA), providing deep fundamental analysis, intrinsic value insights, and long-term investing frameworks for Indian equities. In 2017, we transitioned to a full-fledged SEBI-registered Investment Adviser, strengthening our commitment to acting as a fiduciary—always putting the investor’s interest first.

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