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Moody’s raises India’s GDP growth forecast to 6.8% for 2024

04 Mar 2024 Evaluate

Global rating agency Moody’s has raised India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for 2024 calendar year to 6.8 per cent, from 6.1 per cent estimated earlier, on the back of ‘stronger-than-expected’ economic data of 2023 and fading global economic headwinds. India’s real GDP expanded 8.4 per cent year-over-year in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2023, resulting in a 7.7 per cent growth for full-year 2023. Capital spending by the government and strong manufacturing activity have meaningfully contributed to the robust growth outcomes in 2023. With global headwinds fading, the Indian economy should be able to comfortably register 6-7 per cent real GDP growth. 

According to the report, for 2025, the GDP growth is estimated at 6.4 per cent. It said high-frequency indicators show that the economy’s strong September and December quarter momentum carried into the March quarter of 2024. Robust goods and services tax collections, rising auto sales, consumer optimism and double-digit credit growth suggest urban consumption demand remains resilient. On the supply side, expanding manufacturing and services PMIs add to evidence of solid economic momentum. 

The agency said this year’s interim budget targets capital expenditure allocation of Rs 11.1 lakh crore or 3.4 per cent of GDP in 2024-25 (fiscal year 2025), 16.9 per cent above the 2023-24 estimates. It expects policy continuity after the general election and continued focus on infrastructure development. It also said while private industrial capital spending has been slow to pick up, it is expected to pick up with ongoing supply chain diversification benefits and investors’ response to the government’s Production Linked Incentive scheme to boost key targeted manufacturing industries. 


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