Govt likely to miss disinvestment, fiscal deficit targets for 2011-12: RBI

25 Oct 2011 Evaluate

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), expects government to miss its targets for revenue and disinvestment for the current financial year, which is likely to push the fiscal deficit above the targeted level of 4.6% of the Gross Domestic Products (GDP).

The RBI in its mid-year economic review said that the growth in 2011-12, is likely to moderate below 8%, against earlier projection of around 8%. 'Given growth outlook, there is a risk of not meeting tax collection target,' RBI said. For 2011-12, the government has set a tax collection target of around Rs 7 lakh crore, but because of the slowdown in the economic activities, growth rates is expected to decline below 8%, which means tax collection will decline. 

On the disinvestment target for the current financial year, RBI said that the government could miss the Rs 40,000-crore disinvestment target, putting further pressure on the government finances. 'There is a possibility of the central government missing its disinvestment target, which would add to the pressures of achieving the budgeted fiscal deficit for 2011 12,' RBI added.

In 2010-11, the government was able to bring down the fiscal deficit to 4.7% in 2010-11 from 6.6% in 2009-10. This was because of the huge capital inflow from 3G and broadband auctions. Current situation indicates that the central government's deficit targets for 2011-12 are likely to be breached.

In the first half of the current fiscal year, the government was able to raise around Rs 1,143 crore through disinvestment of PFC, further the government is also targeting to raise around Rs 40,000 crore this fiscal, which is expected to miss because of unfavorable conditions in global as well as in domestic economy. 'The fiscal position during the course of the year will be shaped by the eventual growth outcome and its impact on tax revenues as well as the government's commitment towards controlling expenditure,' the RBI said.

On the international commodity prices and its impact on government’s subsidy bill, the RBI said with oil prices remaining at elevated levels, the subsidy burden of the government is expected to be much higher than budgeted. The subsidy on petroleum products, including LPG, kerosene and domestic cooking gas, for the current fiscal is budgeted at Rs 23,640 crore. 'Hence, the process of fiscal consolidation is likely to suffer a setback.'

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