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India’s real GDP growth to moderate to 6.8% in FY25: Crisil Ratings

07 Mar 2024 Evaluate

Crisil Ratings has said India’s real GDP growth will moderate to 6.8 per cent in FY2025 from the 7.6 per cent expected in the ongoing fiscal. Higher interest rates and demand being tempered by lower fiscal impulse will lead to the moderation of growth.

However, it added that even with the moderated economic growth rate, India will continue to be the fastest-growing large economy. The government has affirmed to narrow the fiscal deficit to 5.1 per cent in FY25, and the elevated inflation or risks of price rise have prevented the RBI from cutting interest rates after hiking it by a cumulative 2.50 percentage points earlier. It said the nature of government spending will provide some support to the investment cycle and rural incomes.

Its chief economist Dharmakirti Joshi said that it expects the RBI to cut rates by 0.50-0.75 percentage point in FY25, but added that the cuts will be gradual with the earliest one not before June. The RBI will have to first shift the stance of the monetary policy to neutral from the current withdrawal of accommodation before cutting the rates, Joshi said, adding that it may look at shifting stance and cutting rates in the same policy review as well.


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