Revenues of sample set of 25 Indian pharma companies likely to grow by 8-10% in FY25: ICRA

01 Apr 2024 Evaluate

Credit rating agency ICRA in its latest report has said that the revenues of its sample set of 25 Indian pharmaceutical companies (which account for around 60% of the overall Indian pharmaceutical industry) is likely to grow by 8-10% in FY2025, post a YoY increase of 13-14% in FY2024. Following the high base of FY24, the revenue growth momentum from the US and Europe markets is expected to moderate to 8-10% and 7-9%, respectively, from the YoY expansion of 18-20% and 16-18%, respectively, estimated for FY24. The domestic market is expected to see stable growth at 6-8%, while the emerging markets may log in an 8-10% rise in FY25, against 16-18% in FY24.

According to the report, the revenue growth of the sample set companies in the US market in FY24 has been supported by increased new product launches, product shortages in select therapeutic segments, and healthy performance of complex generics (first to file). However, as the base effect plays out, growth is expected to taper in FY25. While low single digit pricing pressure in the US market is likely to sustain, Indian pharmaceutical companies remain focused on enhancing their revenue contribution from the complex generics in the US market. In the European market, revenue growth for the sample set picked up considerably in the current fiscal, largely on the back of a low base, uptick in the base business (both branded and generics segment), new product launches (especially injectables) and incremental revenues from new tender wins (in countries such as Germany).

The report further said in contrast to the healthy growth from the US and European markets, growth in the domestic market in FY24 was impacted to an extent by the change in composition of the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM), which led to a decline in realisations for certain drugs, in addition to an uneven monsoon, which affected acute therapy sales. Furthermore, a one-time reduction in channel inventories by one of the sample set companies also impacted the overall growth. That said, the 6-8% YoY expansion in revenues is supported by sales force expansion and increased medical representatives’ (MR) productivity, new product launches with enhanced reach and market share gains for some of the sample set companies. Going forward, sustained price growth and revival in volumes, supported by new product introductions, are expected to continue to support revenue growth from the domestic market. That said, developments on the trade generic policies would be a key monitorable. 


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