Post Session: Quick Review

Indian benchmarks witnessed heavy selling pressure in Friday’s trade and ended with cut of over a percent ahead of the India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data to be out later in the day. Besides, TCS is slated to post March quarter earnings later today. Markets touched their day’s low levels in last leg of trade, as investors sold their riskier assets. There were no gaining sectoral indices on the BSE. The broader indices, the BSE Mid cap index and Small cap index ended with cut of over half a percent. 

Markets made negative start and widened their losses tracking weakness in Asian counterparts as hopes of a rate cut in the US faded. Traders were cautious with a private report that India's consumer price inflation likely eased to a five-month low of 4.91% in March but was still above the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 4% medium-term target as food price rises persist. Investors overlooked the RBI’s Monetary Policy Report stating that the government's continued emphasis on infrastructure creation, coupled with an uptick in private corporate investment and buoyant business optimism, could nurture a sustained revival in the investment cycle, which augurs well for boosting productivity and growth in the economy. In afternoon session, markets lost some more ground, as traders avoided to take risk. Sentiments were downbeat amid a private report stating that the growing Indian economy is creating jobs, but mainly for the unskilled and semi-skilled workers. Graduates and those having higher qualifications, even with technical degrees and diplomas, are witnessing employment generation at a slow pace. In late afternoon session, selling got intensified and domestic indices touched day’s low levels. Finally, Nifty and Sensex settled below the psychological 22,550 and 74,300 levels respectively.

On the global front, European markets were trading higher after a European Central Bank (ECB) poll of professional forecasters showed that inflation in the euro zone will fall to 2 percent in 2025 and stay there in the longer term, giving the clearest indication that the ECB could cut interest rates in June. Asian markets ended mostly in red as Japan's industrial production contracted more than initially estimated in February. The final data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry showed that industrial production fell 0.6 percent on a monthly basis, though much slower than the 6.7 percent decline in January. Back home, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in its latest report has forecasted a domestic sales volume growth rate of 6%-9% during FY25 as against growth rate of 12%-14% in FY24.

The BSE Sensex ended at 74,244.90, down by 793.25 points or 1.06% after trading in a range of 74,189.31 and 74,951.88. There were 3 stocks advancing against 27 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The broader indices were trading in red; the BSE Mid cap index declined 0.49%, while Small cap index was down by 0.60%. (Provisional)

The top losing sectoral indices on the BSE were Consumer Durables down by 1.39%, Oil & Gas down by 1.28%, Healthcare down by 1.23%, FMCG down by 1.10% and Utilities was down by 1.02%, while there were no gaining sectoral indices on the BSE. (Provisional)

The top gainers on the Sensex were Tata Motors up by 0.67%, TCS up by 0.41% and Nestle up by 0.17%. On the flip side, Sun Pharma down by 3.64%, Maruti Suzuki down by 3.17%, Power Grid down by 2.43%, Titan Company down by 2.29% and JSW Steel down by 2.22% were the top losers. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, with the help of public and private sector investment demand and gradual improvement in consumer demand, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast to 7 per cent for the current fiscal (FY25) from 6.7 per cent earlier. Though, the growth estimates for 2024-25 is lower than 7.6 per cent projected for the 2022-23 fiscal. It noted that strong investment drove GDP growth in the 2022-23 fiscal as consumption was muted. The ADB had in December last year projected the Indian economy to expand 6.7 per cent in the 2024-25 fiscal.

The April edition of the Asian Development Outlook showed that ‘The economy grew robustly in fiscal 2023 with strong momentum in manufacturing and services. It will continue to grow rapidly over the forecast horizon. Growth will be driven primarily by robust investment demand and improving consumption demand. Inflation will continue its downward trend in tandem with global trends’. It added growth will be robust despite moderating in FY2024 and FY2025. For the 2025-26 fiscal, the ADB has projected India's growth at 7.2 per cent.

The ADB said exports are likely to be relatively muted this fiscal as growth in major advanced economies slows down but will improve in FY2025. It also said ‘Monetary policy is expected to remain supportive of growth as inflation abates, while fiscal policy aims for consolidation but retains support for capital investment. On balance, growth is forecast to slow to seven per cent in FY2024 but improve to 7.2 per cent in FY2025’, and added that to boost exports in the medium term, India needs greater integration into global value chains. The ADB's growth forecast for FY25 is in line with the projections made by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

The CNX Nifty ended at 22,519.40, down by 234.40 points or 1.03% after trading in a range of 22,503.75 and 22,726.45. There were 7 stocks advancing against 43 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The top gainers on Nifty were Divi's Lab up by 1.09%, Bajaj Auto up by 0.66%, Tata Motors up by 0.49%, TCS up by 0.42% and Tata Consumer up by 0.36%. On the flip side, Sun Pharma down by 3.99%, Maruti Suzuki down by 3.28%, Power Grid down by 2.58%, Titan Company down by 2.48% and ONGC down by 2.32% were the top losers. (Provisional)

European markets were trading higher; UK’s FTSE 100 increased 93.49 points or 1.17% to 8,017.29, France’s CAC rose 55.3 points or 0.68% to 8,079.04 and Germany’s DAX was up by 130.26 points or 0.72% to 18,084.74.

Asian markets ended mostly in red on Friday as traders priced in less monetary-policy easing by the Federal Reserve this year and waited for the U.S. earnings season to kick off with large-cap banking names. China's market fell as the U.S. crackdown on China's tech sector intensified. The United States has added six Chinese companies to an export blacklist accusing them of seeking to acquire AI chips for China's military or helping to procure drones for use by Russia. Investors also looked ahead to a rate decision by the People's Bank of China on Monday, with the central bank expected leave the key policy rate unchanged.