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The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in its latest Economic Outlook report has projected India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow at 7.8 per cent in the just-concluded financial year 2023-24 and the forecast is for around 6.6 per cent in each of the following two fiscal years (FY25 and FY26). However, global near-term developments pose obstacles to higher growth. It has said India’s domestic demand will be driven by gross capital formation, particularly in the public sector, with private consumption growth remaining sluggish. OECD is a group of 37 member countries that discuss and develop economic and social policy.
In the report, OECD asserted that exports will continue to grow, especially of services such as information technology and consulting where India will continue to increase its global market share, supported by foreign investment. It added headline inflation will decline gradually, although uncertainty about food inflation remains elevated. In India, consumer price index (CPI) inflation was 4.9 per cent in March after averaging 5.1 per cent in the preceding two months, following the recent peak of 5.7 per cent in December 2023.
Retail inflation in India is in RBI’s two-six per cent comfort level but is above the ideal 4 per cent scenario. Inflation has been a concern for many countries, including advanced economies, but India has largely managed to steer its inflation trajectory quite well. The Indian central bank’s monetary policy, the OECD report said that the monetary policy easing is projected to start in the second half of the year once lower inflation is maintained.
The report said ‘Assuming a normal monsoon season and no other supply shocks that may de-anchor inflation expectations, a first cut of the policy rate is projected in late 2024, with cumulative cuts of up to 125 basis points implemented before March 2026. The RBI will only switch the stance to neutral during 2025’. Further, the report suggested that India needs to achieve a higher level of real GDP growth to address the country’s multiple development challenges, especially job creation.
MoneyWorks4Me rating and ranking of funds for SIP is available to subscribers only. Moneyworks4Me is not a rating and ranking agency, however it is required that users have a way of selecting funds and building a Portfolio. The method used by it are described below to enable users to understand the logic behind the rating and ranking Subscriber will find more details on this in the various content made available from time to time. In case you need more please write to besafe@moneyworks4Me.com
MoneyWorks4Me rates and ranks mutual funds based on the following data-driven system:
Funds ranking in screeners: Performance Consistency and Quality are two parameters used for ranking funds for SIP. The ranking as follows GG, GO, GR, OG, OO, OR, RG, RO and RR.
With the same color-coded funds, the one with the higher Average 3-year rolling returns (over 5 to 10 years), the number that appears in the Performance tag, ranks higher.
Here is the summary:
The third tag Upside Potential is not relevant for SIP. It is relevant for lumpsum investments in Mutual Funds.
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