RBI may have to revise its growth forecasts downward: Goldman

31 Oct 2011 Evaluate

On the back of slowdown in the international economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may have to further lower its growth projection for the current financial year. The Goldman Sachs, in its Asia Policy Watch said, 'our FY12 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast remains at 7% with downside risks and we think the RBI may need to still revise its growth forecasts downwards.'

The RBI in its second quarter monetary policy review, earlier last month, has downward its growth projection for the Indian economy to 7.6% from earlier projection of 8%. For this downward revision in growth projection, RBI made responsible to slower global growth and its adverse impact on domestic economy, especially on the industrial production, due to the increasing inter-linkages of the domestic economy with the global economy. 'While growth in advanced economies is already weakening, there is a risk of sharp deterioration if a credible solution to the euro area debt problem is not found,' RBI said.

In the first quarter of 2011-12, Indian economy grew by 7.7% compared to 8.8% in the same period of last year. During 2010-11, Indian economy had expanded by 8.5% and in 2009-10 it registered economic growth of 8%. Along with high inflation, the slowdown in project investments is also affecting the economic growth of India.

However, on the positive note, the Goldman report said that inflation in the country will moderate to 6% by March 2012, which is below the RBI projection of 7%. 'There is some comfort coming from de-seasonalized sequential quarterly WPI data which suggest that inflation momentum has turned down... The RBI's end-March WPI inflation forecast remains at 7%, while we think it could be lower at 6%,' it said.

Whereas, headline inflation measured by the WPI, for the month of September stood at 9.72% compared to 9.78% in August. The inflation of manufactured products, which account for more than 65% of the WPI, stood at 7.69% during the month compared to 7.79% in August. Despite, marginal decline, the headline inflation is still hovering near the two digit mark. 

In order to curb inflation, the RBI has hiked its short term lending and borrowing rates for 13 times since March 2010. 'We continue to think that with inflation and growth likely to surprise on the downside, the RBI will likely cut interest rates in April 2012, and we have built in 100 basis points in rate cuts in 2012-13,' Goldman added.

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