Post Session: Quick Review

Indian benchmarks hit their new record high levels in opening trade but failed to hold on to gains and witnessed downfall till the end of the session as investors chose to book profits at record high levels, ahead of Union Budget 2024. Markets came under pressure amid tech issue due to the Microsoft global outage. There were no gaining sectoral indices on the BSE during the day. The overall market breadth was negative as 3005 shares were declining and 916 were advancing, while 89 shares were unchanged on the BSE.

Markets made positive start as some support came as the latest round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey said Indian economy is expected to grow at an annual median GDP growth of 7 per cent in 2024-25. However, soon markets entered into red and extended their losses as investors maintained risk-averse approach. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its monthly bulletin said that despite the overall positive trajectory, inflation remains a key concern for the Indian economy as the uptick in June 2024 has derailed its disinflation path. In afternoon session, markets continued to trade under selling pressure tracking weak trends from global markets. Traders overlooked the think tank Global Trade Research Initiative’s (GTRI) latest report stating that the steps such as increasing exports, making local currency trading workable and a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union will help boost trade between India and Russia. In late afternoon session, markets touched their day’s low levels, as traders preferred to sell their riskier assets ahead of Union Budget 2024. 

On the global front, European markets were trading lower as signs of deepening Sino-U.S. trade tensions along with uncertainty over U.S. President Joe Biden's path to victory in the presidential race sapped investors' appetite for risk. Asian markets ended mostly in red amid fears of new trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Back home, Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Reserve Bank's relations with the government have been smooth during his nearly six-year term, and credited the close coordination between the two for the quick revival of the economy after the pandemic.

The BSE Sensex ended at 80,604.65, down by 738.81 points or 0.91% after trading in a range of 80,499.10 and 81,587.76. There were 4 stocks advancing against 26 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The broader indices ended in red; the BSE Mid cap index declined 2.31%, while Small cap index was down by 2.22%. (Provisional)

The top losing sectoral indices on the BSE were Metal down by 4.11%, Basic Materials down by 3.07%, Oil & Gas down by 2.87%, Energy down by 2.83%, Power down by 2.67%, while there were no gaining sectoral indices on the BSE. (Provisional)

The top gainers on the Sensex were Infosys up by 1.92%, ITC up by 0.89%, Asian Paints up by 0.53% and HCL Tech up by 0.03%. On the flip side, Tata Steel down by 5.17%, JSW Steel down by 4.36%, Tata Motors down by 3.43%, NTPC down by 3.38% and Ultratech Cement down by 3.28% were the top losers. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI) in its Economic Outlook Survey has forecasted an annual median Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 7.0 per cent for the year 2024-25. It added ‘Despite persisting headwinds, India’s economic growth remains resilient, and the nation remains amongst fastest growing economies in the world’. It said that the median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities will likely be at 3.7 per cent for 2024-25. This marks an improvement of growth of about 1.4 per cent reported in the year 2023-24.

The industry body projects that the ebbing El Nino effect, with the expectation of a normal southwest monsoon is likely to bode well for agricultural production. Industry and services sector, on the other hand, are anticipated to grow by 6.7 per cent and 7.4 per cent respectively, in the current fiscal year. According to the survey results, median GDP growth is estimated at 6.8 per cent and 7.2 per cent in Q1 2024-25 and Q2 2024-25 respectively.

Further, as per the report, the median forecast for CPI-based inflation has been put at 4.5 per cent for 2023-24, with a minimum and maximum range of 4.4 per cent and 5.0 per cent respectively. While food prices remain sticky with inflation inching up in cereals, fruits and milk, the survey participants expect an easing of prices in the second quarter with kharif output reaching the market.

The CNX Nifty ended at 24,530.90, down by 269.95 points or 1.09% after trading in a range of 24,508.15 and 24,854.80. There were 5 stocks advancing against 44 stocks declining on the index, while 1 stock remained unchanged. (Provisional)

The top gainers on Nifty were Infosys up by 1.99%, ITC up by 0.91%, Asian Paints up by 0.49%, Britannia Inds up by 0.11% and LTIMindtree up by 0.10%. On the flip side, Tata Steel down by 5.16%, BPCL down by 4.51%, JSW Steel down by 4.51%, Hindalco down by 3.91% and ONGC down by 3.63% were the top losers. (Provisional)

European markets were trading lower; UK’s FTSE 100 decreased 35.48 points or 0.43% to 8,169.41, France’s CAC fell 62.49 points or 0.83% to 7,524.06 and Germany’s DAX was down by 145.3 points or 0.8% to 18,209.46. 

Asian markets settled mostly down on Friday due to speculation over a second Donald Trump presidency, persisting concerns over the US-China trade war, and China’s Third Plenum failed to provide any details on further stimulus measures to shore up its economy. Japanese shares fell, even as semiconductor shares rebounding from recent string of losses. Japanese market tracked Wall Street’s declines overnight, while Japanese government cut this year's growth forecast as consumption took a hit from rising import costs due to a weak yen that highlighted the fragile nature of the economic recovery.