Taking action on inflation will not affect growth: C Rangarajan

03 Jun 2011 Evaluate

C Rangarajan Chairman of Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) stated that the Indian economy may grow by 8.5% in the present financial year on the back of growth in service and industry sector. He also indicated that agriculture may not be able to make significant contribution to growth in present fiscal year.

C Rangarajan is in favor of deregulation of diesel prices to achieve fiscal deficit target for present year. According to him increase in fuel prices was necessary to narrow India’s fiscal deficit to the target 4.6% of GDP. He said, “I think the need to take corrective actions with respect to petroleum prices has become urgent. We need to contain fiscal deficit at 4.6% of the GDP during the year. Therefore, some actions are called for to contain the subsidies at the budgeted level”.

For 2011-12 fiscal deficit target is 4.6% of the GDP. Government is aiming to reduce fiscal deficit to 3.5% of GDP in coming years. Fiscal deficit was 4.7% in 2010-11 which was less than the target of 5.1%. However, economist and analyst have expressed their concern over the fiscal deficit target, as the global commodity prices have remained at high level.

Last month, Government had allowed its oil marketing companies to raise petrol’s price by 8.6% or Rs 5. An Empowered Group of Minister headed by the Finance Minister is scheduled to meet on June 09, 2011 to take decision on increase in price of diesel, kerosene and LPG. Petrol and diesel both accounts for 52% of country’s fuel demand. And these petroleum products have a combined weight of 6.32% in wholesale price index (WPI). Deregulation of diesel price will have significant impact on inflation as it account for 4.67% in WPI alone. Though, speculations are rife that decision on fuel price hike may be delayed as any increase in diesel price will have huge impact on inflation for coming months. WPI inflation was 8.66% in April.

C Rangarajan sees rising inflation as “disturbing element” in countries growth and government should use all tools to bring inflation into comfort zone. He expects by end of this financial year inflation will come down to 6% to 6.5% which is near to comfort zone.

C Rangarajan also disagrees with the argument that RBI’s aggressive monetary policy in order to control inflation is hampering nation’s economic growth.  He said if inflation continues to remain at high levels than the RBI will have to take further action, taking action on inflation will not necessary affect growth. We need to look at growth over the medium term and high growth requires low level of inflation.

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