RBI may begin lowering interest rates around October: Crisil

12 Aug 2024 Evaluate

Crisil in its report has said that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may begin lowering interest rates around October, provided that external factors like weather conditions and international commodity prices do not cause any disruptions. The credit rating agency further anticipated that it expects ‘two rate cuts this fiscal’. It said that the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to hold rates in its recent announcement was due to the elevated food inflation. The climate conditions such as weather events are frequently changing and they need to be monitored. 

Going ahead, the rating agency anticipated that the macroeconomic environment would be better, creating a background for a rate cut. It further said ‘The food challenge to a rate cut is expected to ease as agriculture prospects look better than last year. The monsoon has been above normal (7 per cent above the long period average as of August 7), and sowing has picked up across major foodgrains. As agriculture prospects become clearer by September, we expect it to pave the way for a rate cut’.

Noting a likely uptick in core inflation, the report added that factors such as international freight costs, geopolitical risks to crude oil prices, and hikes in domestic telecom tariffs could affect this indicator. Anticipating the growth, it added ‘The pace of growth of the economy is expected to ease this year, with lower fiscal support as the government pursues fiscal consolidation’. In a move reflecting its cautious approach amid ongoing economic uncertainties, the RBI had decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.


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